Table 3.

Absolute numbers of cancer cases and deaths expected in a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 persons after 5 years of follow-up, assuming a stage shift whereby one third of stage IV cancers had outcome similar to stage III, one third had outcome similar to stage II, and one third had outcome similar to stage I, based on incidence and cancer-specific mortality rates for persons ages 50–79 years from SEER18, 2006–2015.

Cancer diagnoses in first yearDeaths after 5 yearsDeaths after hypothetical stage shiftAbsolute deaths avertedProportion deaths averteda
All cancers1,078336255810.24
Selected cancers
 Lung14710780270.26
 Colorectal942816130.45
 Pancreas30262430.11
 Liver25191810.06
 Breast163151050.34
 Non-Hodgkin lymphoma4410820.18
 Prostate1989450.57
 Kidney388440.53
 Oral cavity and pharynx298530.36
 Ovary158620.25
 Esophagus128720.18
 Bladder217520.25
 Uterine397520.24
 Melanoma464310.26
 Thyroid221010.80
  • aEstimated deaths shown rounded up to the nearest integer, while proportion based on division of estimates with two decimal places.