Table 2.

Absolute numbers of cancer cases and deaths expected in a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 persons after 5 years of follow-up, assuming a stage shift whereby all stage IV cancers had outcome similar to stage III, based on incidence and cancer-specific mortality rates for persons ages 50–79 years from SEER18, 2006–2015.

Cancer diagnoses in first yearDeaths after 5 yearsDeaths after hypothetical stage shiftAbsolute deaths avertedProportion deaths averteda
All cancers1,078336285510.15
Selected cancers
 Lung14710795120.11
 Colorectal942818110.38
 Pancreas30262600.01
 Liver25191900.02
 Breast163151140.27
 Non-Hodgkin lymphoma4410910.09
 Prostate1989450.56
 Kidney388540.46
 Oral cavity and pharynx298620.22
 Ovary158710.11
 Esophagus128810.10
 Bladder217510.17
 Uterine397610.18
 Melanoma464310.17
 Thyroid221010.79
  • aEstimated deaths shown rounded up to nearest integer, while proportion based on division of estimates with two decimal places.