Table 5.

Change in age-adjusted AUC for breast cancer by different risk models and tumor characteristics among postmenopausal women not currently using menopausal hormone replacement therapy.

Gail 5-year riskaTyrer–Cuzick 5-year riskbCAD2Y 2-year riskc
ModelN cases/controlsAUC (SE)P valuedN cases/controlsAUC (SE)P valuedN cases/controlsAUC (SE)P valued
Early detection (<2 years)
 Risk model only251/84256.2 (2.1)251/85260.6 (2.1)144/82971.3 (2.3)
 Risk model + DHEAS236/78859.3 (2.1)0.006236/78862.6 (2.1)0.005136/77670.0 (2.5)0.011
 Risk model + mammographic density246/83160.3 (2.1)0.001246/83163.2 (2.0)<0.001
 Risk model + DHEAS and mammographic density231/77761.6 (2.1)<0.001231/77764.0 (2.1)<0.001
Late detection (≥2 years)
 Risk model only152/84255.4 (2.5)152/84259.9 (2.6)106/82964.6 (2.7)
 Risk model + DHEAS144/78855.4 (2.6)0.216144/78860.1 (2.6)0.190100/77664.5 (2.8)0.330
 Risk model + mammographic density151/83154.8 (2.5)0.863151/83159.6 (2.6)0.943
 Risk model + DHEAS and mammographic density143/77754.9 (2.6)0.426143/77759.8 (2.6)0.397
ER-positive
 Risk model only308/84254.9 (2.0)308/84260.5 (1.9)175/82967.0 (2.2)
 Risk model + DHEAS291/78856.5 (2.0)0.019291/78861.0 (1.9)0.025166/77665.9 (2.3)0.121
 Risk model + mammographic density304/83156.6 (2.0)0.264304/83160.5 (1.9)0.204
 Risk model + DHEAS and mammographic density287/77757.0 (2.0)0.037287/77760.8 (2.0)0.041
ER-negative
 Risk model only41/84260.1 (5.1)41/84267.4 (4.4)29/82969.7 (5.3)
 Risk model + DHEAS38/78862.6 (5.2)0.28438/78869.4 (4.2)0.17726/77669.3 (5.6)0.125
 Risk model + mammographic density39/83166.0 (4.8)0.01439/83171.6 (4.2)0.006
 Risk model + DHEAS and mammographic density36/77768.3 (4.7)0.03036/77772.5 (3.9)0.010
Grades 1–2
 Risk model only244/84254.0 (2.0)244/84258.9 (2.0)150/82968.0 (2.3)
 Risk model + DHEAS232/78857.2 (2.1)0.009232/78860.1 (2.1)0.012143/77667.1 (2.4)0.103
 Risk model + mammographic density240/83154.7 (2.0)0.423240/83158.6 (2.1)0.370
 Risk model + DHEAS and mammographic density228/77757.7 (2.2)0.021228/77759.9 (2.1)0.026
Grade 3
 Risk model only146/84261.7 (2.6)146/84266.8 (2.5)91/82971.9 (2.8)
 Risk model + DHEAS136/78861.1 (2.7)0.185136/78867.1 (2.5)0.10284/77670.5 (3.0)0.056
 Risk model + mammographic density144/83164.3 (2.5)0.002144/83168.9 (2.4)<0.001
 Risk model + DHEAS and mammographic density134/77764.0 (2.7)0.006134/77768.5 (2.5)0.001
  • aGail model included risk factors of age, age at menarche, age at first live birth, number of previous breast biopsies, atypical hyperplasia, and first-degree family history of breast cancer.

  • bTyrer–Cuzick model included risk factors of age, age at menarche, age at first child, menopause, height, weight, MHT, hyperplasia, atypical hyperplasia, lobular cancer in situ, and first-/second-degree family history of breast cancer.

  • cCAD2Y risk model included age, menopausal status, BMI, current use of MHT, breast cancer in family, percent mammographic breast density, mammographic density difference (absolute difference between right and left breasts), microcalcification (absolute difference between right and left breasts), and interaction between mammographic density and masses.

  • dP value indicates difference in prediction by model with only risk score on the basis of log-likelihood ratio test.