Table 2.

Cervical cancer cases averted compared with no vaccination over 2019 to 2118 by vaccine delivery strategy.

StrategyCervical cancer cases avertedPercent reduction compared with no vaccination
6 years, 9 to 14 years old274,000 (128,000–413,000)8% (4%–12%)
5 years, 9 to 14 years old364,000 (167,000–581,000)11% (5%–17%)
Routine one dose421,00012%
4 years, 9 to 14 years old504,000 (222,000–837,000)15% (6%–24%)
Routine two doses562,00016%
6 years, 9 to 18 years old593,000 (261,000–997,000)17% (8%–29%)
3 years, 9 to 14 years old732,000 (318,000–1,259,000)21% (9%–37%)
5 years, 9 to 18 years old747,000 (323,000–1,274,000)22% (9%–37%)
4 years, 9 to 18 years old981,000 (427,000–1,599,000)29% (12%–47%)
6 years, 9 to 26 years old1,202,000 (529,000–1,887,000)35% (15%–55%)
3 years, 9 to 18 years old1,352,000 (604,000–1,965,000)39% (18%–57%)
5 years, 9 to 26 years old1,450,000 (656,000–2,048,000)42% (19%–60%)
6 years, 9 to 30 years old1,468,000 (669,000–2,076,000)43% (20%–61%)
5 years, 9 to 30 years old1,729,000 (818,000–2,151,000)50% (24%–63%)
4 years, 9 to 26 years old1,768,000 (843,000–2,142,000)52% (25%–63%)
4 years, 9 to 30 years old1,994,000 (1,039,000–2,190,000)58% (30%–64%)
3 years, 9 to 26 years old2,052,000 (1,141,000–2,187,000)60% (33%–64%)
3 years, 9 to 30 years old2,141,000 (1,380,000–2,218,000)63% (40%–65%)
  • Note: Cervical cancer cases averted are aggregated over 2019 to 2118 for females currently alive in 2019 plus those women born between 2020 and 2118 and rounded to the nearest thousand. Campaign delivery strategies are presented for 40% coverage, with 20% and 60% coverage in parentheses. Routine strategies assume 70% vaccination coverage, including 1-year multiage vaccination of 10- to 14-year-old girls. In the base case, for HPV-16/18 infections, we assumed 80% efficacy and 15-year duration of protection followed by waning over 20 years with one dose and 100% efficacy and lifelong duration of protection with two doses.