Table 3.

Estimated 5-year risk of anal cancer and anal SCC following benign anal disease, AIN1, AIN2, and AIN3 overall and AIN3 by sex, age, year of diagnosis, and HIV status excluding the first 6 months after diagnosis.

All anal cancersSCC anal cancers
Number in cohortNumber of anal cancersFive-year risk (%) (95% CI)Number of anal SCCsFive-year risk (%) (95% CI)
Benign112,3051560.07 (0.05–0.09)1090.05 (0.03–0.06)
AIN18,678350.15 (0.07–0.24)320.14 (0.06–0.22)
AIN2735221.57 (0.65–2.48)181.13 (0.35–1.92)
AIN31,237873.7 (2.6–4.7)803.4 (2.3–4.4)
Sex
 Male298234.6 (2.2–7.1)224.3 (1.9–6.7)
 Female939643.3 (2.1–4.5)583.1 (1.9–4.3)
Age
 <50 years598432.1 (0.9–3.3)401.9 (0.8–3.1)
 50–60 years277112.9 (0.8–5.0)112.9 (0.8–5.0)
 ≥60 years362336.9 (4.2–9.6)296.3 (3.7–8.9)
HIV status
 Negative1,190773.2 (2.2–4.3)703.0 (2.0–4.0)
 Positive471014.1 (3.6–24.7)1014.1 (3.6–24.7)