Table 2.

Estimated percent progressing to metastatic recurrence within 5, 10, or 15 years and respective 95% CIs in parentheses by stage, HR status, age, and years at diagnosis

Fraction recurrring in percent (95% CI)
HR-positiveHR-negative
StageYear at diagnosisYears from diagnosisAge: 15–5960–7475–8415–5960–7475–84
I1992–9953.43.76.88.77.312.5
(3.2–3.7)(3.4–3.9)(6.0–7.5)(7.9–9.6)(6.5–8.1)(10.8–14.2)
106.67.613.212.312.219.8
(6.3–7.0)(7.2–8.0)(12.4–14.0)(11.5–13.1)(11.2–13.2)(17.7–21.8)
159.511.318.613.914.623.1
(9.0–9.9)(10.8–11.8)(17.3–19.8)(13.0–14.8)(13.5–15.8)(20.5–25.6)
I2000–1352.32.54.57.26.510.3
(2.1–2.4)(2.4–2.7)(4.2–4.8)(6.6–7.8)(5.9–7.2)(9.0–11.6)
104.45.29.09.49.715.6
(4.1–4.6)(4.9–5.5)(8.4–9.5)(8.7–10.1)(8.9–10.6)(13.8–17.4)
156.27.812.910.411.217.9
(5.6–6.8)(7.2–8.4)(11.8–13.9)(9.6–11.2)(10.1–12.3)(15.6–20.1)
II1992–99512.412.619.423.024.135.0
(11.7–13.0)(11.8–13.3)(18.2–20.7)(21.6–24.3)(22.7–25.5)(32.7–37.4)
1019.921.528.626.330.240.7
(19.2–20.6)(20.6–22.3)(27.2–30.0)(25.3–27.4)(28.7–31.6)(38.1–43.2)
1524.627.433.527.632.142.3
(23.9–25.3)(26.5–28.3)(31.7–35.3)(26.5–28.6)(30.5–33.7)(39.6–45.0)
II2000–1359.39.614.118.220.228.1
(8.9–9.7)(9.2–10.1)(13.3–14.9)(17.2–19.1)(19.0–21.4)(26.1–30.1)
1015.116.621.819.923.532.2
(14.6–15.6)(16.0–17.2)(20.7–22.9)(19.2–20.7)(22.2–24.7)(30.0–34.5)
1518.821.426.120.724.633.4
(17.9–19.7)(20.4–22.4)(24.4–27.7)(19.9–21.5)(23.3–26.0)(31.0–35.8)
III1992–99540.742.553.356.455.268.3
(39.0–42.5)(40.7–44.4)(50.7–55.8)(54.3–58.5)(53.1–57.4)(65.5–71.2)
1050.354.361.559.061.173.6
(49.0–51.5)(52.8–55.7)(59.2–63.7)(57.3–60.6)(59.0–63.3)(70.7–76.5)
1554.759.865.260.162.875.1
(53.5–55.9)(58.2–61.3)(62.7–67.8)(58.5–61.7)(60.6–65.1)(72.1–78.0)
III2000–13532.134.542.347.848.560.6
(31.1–33.2)(33.1–35.8)(40.3–44.4)(46.1–49.6)(46.4–50.7)(57.5–63.8)
1041.145.551.849.251.965.4
(39.9–42.3)(43.9–47.0)(49.4–54.1)(47.7–50.6)(49.7–54.0)(62.1–68.8)
1545.350.756.050.053.166.8
(43.7–46.8)(48.7–52.8)(53.2–58.8)(48.5–51.5)(50.8–55.4)(63.3–70.3)
Historical stage Local Regional
2000–1356.15.37.723.121.626.6
(5.8–6.4)(5.0–5.5)(7.3–8.2)(22.2–24.1)(20.7–22.5)(25.4–27.9)
  • NOTE: The results used the analytical deconvolution method and the log-logistic cure mixture model and represent probabilities in the absence of other causes of death. Survival from recurrence used an adjustment of HR r = 1.35 compared with de novo distant-stage breast cancer. Estimates using historical stage for women diagnosed with breast cancer in 2000–2013 are also presented.