Table 4.

Sensitivity of estimated percent progressing to metastatic recurrence to the adjustment HR Embedded Image (A), the numerical and analytical solution using log-logistic and Weibull mixture cure survival models (B), and Embedded Image = 1.35 and the assumption of no cure for women diagnosed with stage III breast cancer (C)

Percent progressing to recurrence
A. Sensitivity to the adjustment r of the de novo stage IV breast cancer survival
HR-positiveHR-negative
Years from diagnosisr = 1.0r = 1.35r = 1.5r = 1.7r = 1.0r = 1.35r = 1.5r = 1.7
Stage I53.0%2.5%2.4%2.3%7.2%6.5%6.3%6.1%
105.8%5.2%5.0%4.9%10.1%9.7%9.6%9.5%
158.3%7.8%7.6%7.4%11.4%11.2%11.2%11.1%
Stage II511.3%9.6%9.2%8.7%21.7%20.2%19.8%19.4%
1018.1%16.6%16.2%15.7%23.8%23.5%23.4%23.3%
1522.5%21.4%21.1%20.7%24.7%24.6%24.6%24.5%
Stage III539.6%34.5%33.0%31.4%50.8%48.5%47.9%47.2%
1048.3%45.5%44.7%43.8%52.3%51.9%51.7%51.6%
1552.2%50.7%50.3%49.9%53.2%53.1%53.0%53.0%
B. Sensitivity to log-logistic vs. Weibull assumption
HR-positiveHR-negative
Cure log-logisticCure WeibullCure log-logisticCure Weibull
Stage/Year at diagnosisYears from diagnosisAnalyticalNumericalAnalyticalNumericalAnalyticalNumericalAnalyticalNumerical
Stage I/Cure fraction65%n.a.81%83%
1992–199953.7%3.0%n.a.n.a.7.3%6.6%6.5%5.9%
107.6%6.9%n.a.n.a.12.2%12.0%11.7%11.4%
Stage I/Cure fraction75%n.a.86%88%
2000–201352.5%2.2%n.a.n.a.6.5%5.8%6.3%5.6%
105.2%4.9%n.a.n.a.9.7%9.7%9.8%9.7%
Stage II/Cure fraction56%65%66%67%
1992–1999512.6%10.6%12.0%10.1%24.1%22.8%21.4%19.9%
1021.5%20.3%21.3%20.0%30.2%30.3%30.1%30.0%
Stage II/Cure fraction64%74%74%75%
2000–201359.6%8.6%9.5%8.5%20.2%19.3%19.7%18.5%
1016.6%16.0%16.6%16.0%23.5%24.1%23.8%24.5%
Stage III/Cure fraction29%37%35%37%
1992–1999542.5%38.0%39.8%34.9%55.2%54.4%52.9%51.0%
1054.3%53.6%55.1%53.9%61.1%61.7%61.9%62.5%
Stage III/Cure fraction38%48%45%47%
2000–2013534.5%32.0%33.4%30.9%48.5%48.4%48.5%47.5%
1045.5%45.1%45.9%45.5%51.9%53.7%52.4%52.7%
C. Sensitivity to the cure assumption: log-logistic with no cure (cure = 0%)
No cure log-logisticNo cure log-logistic
Stage IIIAnalyticalNumericalAnalyticalNumerical
1992–1999540.0%35.7%49.7%48.0%
1055.5%53.9%63.9%63.6%
2000–2013530.8%28.4%45.1%43.2%
1045.4%44.5%58.3%58.8%
  • NOTE: Results are shown for women diagnosed at ages 60–74 years.