Table 4.
Sensitivity of estimated percent progressing to metastatic recurrence to the adjustment HR 
(A), the numerical and analytical solution using log-logistic and Weibull mixture cure survival models (B), and 
= 1.35 and the assumption of no cure for women diagnosed with stage III breast cancer (C)
| Percent progressing to recurrence | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sensitivity to the adjustment r of the de novo stage IV breast cancer survival | |||||||||
| HR-positive | HR-negative | ||||||||
| Years from diagnosis | r = 1.0 | r = 1.35 | r = 1.5 | r = 1.7 | r = 1.0 | r = 1.35 | r = 1.5 | r = 1.7 | |
| Stage I | 5 | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% |
| 10 | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.5% | |
| 15 | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.1% | |
| Stage II | 5 | 11.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 21.7% | 20.2% | 19.8% | 19.4% |
| 10 | 18.1% | 16.6% | 16.2% | 15.7% | 23.8% | 23.5% | 23.4% | 23.3% | |
| 15 | 22.5% | 21.4% | 21.1% | 20.7% | 24.7% | 24.6% | 24.6% | 24.5% | |
| Stage III | 5 | 39.6% | 34.5% | 33.0% | 31.4% | 50.8% | 48.5% | 47.9% | 47.2% |
| 10 | 48.3% | 45.5% | 44.7% | 43.8% | 52.3% | 51.9% | 51.7% | 51.6% | |
| 15 | 52.2% | 50.7% | 50.3% | 49.9% | 53.2% | 53.1% | 53.0% | 53.0% | |
| B. Sensitivity to log-logistic vs. Weibull assumption | |||||||||
| HR-positive | HR-negative | ||||||||
| Cure log-logistic | Cure Weibull | Cure log-logistic | Cure Weibull | ||||||
| Stage/Year at diagnosis | Years from diagnosis | Analytical | Numerical | Analytical | Numerical | Analytical | Numerical | Analytical | Numerical |
| Stage I/ | Cure fraction | 65% | n.a. | 81% | 83% | ||||
| 1992–1999 | 5 | 3.7% | 3.0% | n.a. | n.a. | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% |
| 10 | 7.6% | 6.9% | n.a. | n.a. | 12.2% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 11.4% | |
| Stage I/ | Cure fraction | 75% | n.a. | 86% | 88% | ||||
| 2000–2013 | 5 | 2.5% | 2.2% | n.a. | n.a. | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% |
| 10 | 5.2% | 4.9% | n.a. | n.a. | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | |
| Stage II/ | Cure fraction | 56% | 65% | 66% | 67% | ||||
| 1992–1999 | 5 | 12.6% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 24.1% | 22.8% | 21.4% | 19.9% |
| 10 | 21.5% | 20.3% | 21.3% | 20.0% | 30.2% | 30.3% | 30.1% | 30.0% | |
| Stage II/ | Cure fraction | 64% | 74% | 74% | 75% | ||||
| 2000–2013 | 5 | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 20.2% | 19.3% | 19.7% | 18.5% |
| 10 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 16.6% | 16.0% | 23.5% | 24.1% | 23.8% | 24.5% | |
| Stage III/ | Cure fraction | 29% | 37% | 35% | 37% | ||||
| 1992–1999 | 5 | 42.5% | 38.0% | 39.8% | 34.9% | 55.2% | 54.4% | 52.9% | 51.0% |
| 10 | 54.3% | 53.6% | 55.1% | 53.9% | 61.1% | 61.7% | 61.9% | 62.5% | |
| Stage III/ | Cure fraction | 38% | 48% | 45% | 47% | ||||
| 2000–2013 | 5 | 34.5% | 32.0% | 33.4% | 30.9% | 48.5% | 48.4% | 48.5% | 47.5% |
| 10 | 45.5% | 45.1% | 45.9% | 45.5% | 51.9% | 53.7% | 52.4% | 52.7% | |
| C. Sensitivity to the cure assumption: log-logistic with no cure (cure = 0%) | |||||||||
| No cure log-logistic | No cure log-logistic | ||||||||
| Stage III | Analytical | Numerical | Analytical | Numerical | |||||
| 1992–1999 | 5 | 40.0% | 35.7% | 49.7% | 48.0% | ||||
| 10 | 55.5% | 53.9% | 63.9% | 63.6% | |||||
| 2000–2013 | 5 | 30.8% | 28.4% | 45.1% | 43.2% | ||||
| 10 | 45.4% | 44.5% | 58.3% | 58.8% | |||||
NOTE: Results are shown for women diagnosed at ages 60–74 years.