Table 3.

Conditional probabilities of progressing to metastatic recurrence (MR) in the absence of other causes of death in an interval given being alive and recurrence free at the beginning of interval by stage, HR status, grouped age, and years at diagnosis

Percent progressing to MR among women recurrence free at the beginning of the interval
HR-positiveHR-negative
Years from diagnosis15–5960–7475–8415–5960–7475–84
Stage I
1992–19990–53.4%3.7%6.8%8.7%7.3%12.5%
5–103.3%4.1%6.9%3.9%5.3%8.3%
10–153.0%4.1%6.2%1.8%2.8%4.1%
2000–20130–52.3%2.5%4.5%7.2%6.5%10.3%
5–102.1%2.7%4.7%2.4%3.4%5.9%
10–151.9%2.7%4.3%1.1%1.6%2.7%
Stage II
1992–19990–512.4%12.6%19.4%23.0%24.1%35.0%
5–108.6%10.2%11.4%4.4%8.0%8.7%
10–155.9%7.6%6.9%1.7%2.8%2.8%
2000–20130–59.3%9.6%14.1%18.2%20.2%28.1%
5–106.4%7.7%8.9%2.2%4.1%5.7%
10–154.4%5.7%5.5%0.9%1.5%1.7%
Stage III
1992–19990–540.7%42.5%53.3%56.4%55.2%68.3%
5–1016.1%20.4%17.5%5.9%13.1%16.6%
10–158.9%12.0%9.8%2.8%4.5%5.5%
2000–20130–532.1%34.5%42.3%47.8%48.5%60.6%
5–1013.2%16.8%16.3%2.6%6.4%12.2%
10–157.1%9.7%8.7%1.7%2.5%3.9%
  • NOTE: The results used the analytical deconvolution method and the log-logistic cure mixture model. Survival from recurrence used an adjustment of HR r = 1.35 compared with de novo distant-stage breast cancer.