Table 2.

Model predictions for sGERD and BE

Males 1975–1984Males 2000–2009Females 1975–1984Females 2000–2009
MCMC medianLower 95% CIUpper 95% CIMCMC medianLower 95% CIUpper 95% CIMCMC medianLower 95% CIUpper 95% CIMCMC medianLower 95% CIUpper 95% CI
Percentage of population with sGERD
 Age 20–341.28%1.22%1.29%3.73%3.73%3.74%1.44%1.03%2.26%5.84%3.43%9.27%
 Age 35–443.98%3.79%4.01%11.10%11.10%11.11%5.18%4.22%5.88%22.61%11.11%33.33%
 Age 45–546.32%6.03%6.37%17.05%17.05%17.06%8.69%7.09%9.82%28.31%16.34%41.05%
 Age 55–648.30%7.93%8.37%22.56%22.55%22.57%11.89%9.74%13.42%23.21%21.81%26.63%
 Age 65–747.13%6.95%7.22%27.92%27.91%27.94%15.02%12.34%16.91%27.59%27.29%28.41%
 Age 75–846.98%6.77%7.15%32.72%32.71%32.74%18.00%14.84%20.22%32.58%32.24%33.51%
BE prevalence
 Age 20–340.85%0.84%0.86%0.87%0.86%0.88%0.40%0.25%0.74%0.42%0.26%0.76%
 Age 35–441.25%1.24%1.27%1.29%1.29%1.32%0.60%0.39%1.10%0.70%0.42%1.24%
 Age 45–541.59%1.59%1.61%1.67%1.66%1.70%0.80%0.54%1.47%1.00%0.61%1.72%
 Age 55–641.93%1.92%1.96%2.08%2.06%2.13%1.02%0.71%1.89%1.21%0.81%2.17%
 Age 65–742.24%2.23%2.27%2.55%2.52%2.62%1.27%0.90%2.38%1.56%1.03%2.88%
 Age 75–842.56%2.55%2.59%3.03%2.98%3.12%1.55%1.09%2.92%1.99%1.26%3.66%
Prevalence of BE given sGERD
 Age 20–341.43%1.38%1.52%1.42%1.38%1.51%0.94%0.53%1.75%0.89%0.53%1.64%
 Age 35–441.77%1.73%1.86%1.79%1.74%1.88%1.06%0.65%1.95%1.09%0.67%2.01%
 Age 45–542.35%2.27%2.49%2.35%2.27%2.48%1.69%0.92%3.12%1.70%0.91%3.15%
 Age 55–642.94%2.84%3.14%2.96%2.85%3.15%2.31%1.17%4.34%2.32%1.17%4.35%
 Age 65–743.56%3.43%3.81%3.62%3.48%3.87%2.95%1.42%5.60%3.01%1.44%5.70%
 Age 75–844.26%4.04%4.54%4.27%4.09%4.58%3.59%1.68%6.83%3.69%1.71%7.02%
RR for BE given sGERD (vs. no sGERD)
 All ages3.272.983.783.293.033.747.972.7113.967.972.7113.96

NOTE: Model predictions for sGERD and BE prevalence, the prevalence of BE given sGERD, and the relative risk (RR) for BE given sGERD (vs. no sGERD) are shown for males and females by a 5-year age group between 20 and 84, and for early years (1975–1984) versus late years (2000–2009) during the 1975–2009 study. Estimates are shown as MCMC medians, including 95% MCMC CIs.