Table 1.

Factors contributing to age-adjusted EAC incidence trends between 1975 and 2009

MLEMCMC medianLower 95% CIUpper 95% CIMLEMCMC medianLower 95% CIUpper 95% CI
Age adjusted incidence rate for 1975 (per 100,000 PY)
Age adjusted incidence rate for 2009 (per 100,000 PY)
Incidence increase between 1975 and 2009626.31%610.23%517.19%708.61%329.24%300.96%232.42%403.65%
Direct effect of OF trends (affecting promotion only)487.43%470.94%373.57%569.48%107.24%112.02%67.59%166.28%
Direct effect of sGERD trends (affecting BE and promotion)83.73%86.83%58.85%101.83%45.58%47.38%36.73%63.09%
Interaction of sGERD with OF55.14%54.18%16.43%100.35%176.42%144.22%92.94%229.13%
Total increase from sGERD (direct + interaction with OF)138.87%137.84%105.72%190.59%222.00%191.80%139.66%280.37%
Direct effect of sGERD on BE6.77%6.37%0.00%17.49%1.41%1.90%0.47%3.63%
Direct effect sGERD promotion107.55%108.07%80.62%132.38%189.31%149.55%108.64%235.89%
Interaction of sGERD trends on BE initiation and promotion24.55%25.10%0.00%75.64%31.29%35.92%10.73%70.79%
Increase from direct effect of cohort on sGERD and OF465.36%455.25%366.42%554.50%202.95%184.05%139.40%256.87%
Direct cohort trends of OF (on promotion)440.55%425.11%335.56%515.59%106.68%111.54%67.24%165.70%
Direct cohort trends on sGERD and sGERD—OF interaction24.81%30.65%18.31%48.83%96.27%75.18%42.07%120.69%
Increase from direct effect of period on sGERD and OF52.79%52.43%28.64%71.19%45.00%46.97%36.44%61.85%
Direct period trends on sGERD40.65%41.16%15.48%60.38%44.80%46.76%36.24%61.63%
Direct period trends on OF and sGERD—OF interactions12.14%11.06%9.98%13.29%0.20%0.21%0.13%0.30%
Increase due to interaction between cohort and period108.16%100.99%79.00%131.73%81.29%68.93%43.62%117.78%
Interaction between cohort and period trends on sGERD69.38%63.29%40.68%92.75%80.71%68.54%43.14%117.29%
Interaction between cohort and period trends on OF and OF—sGERD interactions38.78%37.78%30.18%46.51%0.59%0.42%0.24%0.65%

NOTE: EAC incidence trends between 1975 and 2009 and attributable estimates of the direct effects and interactions due to sGERD, OF, cohort, period, and biologic mechanism on these trends are shown for men and women. Cohort effects on OF promotion appear as the dominate drivers of the observed increase in EAC risk among both men and women. All estimates show MLEs, MCMC medians, and 95% MCMC CIs.