Table 5.

Absolute annual risk (per 100,000 individuals) for EAC given sGERD duration

Males 1975–1984Males 2000–2009Females 1975–1984Females 2000–2009
MCMC medianLower 95% CIUpper 95% CIMCMC medianLower 95% CIUpper 95% CIMCMC medianLower 95% CIUpper 95% CIMCMC medianLower 95% CIUpper 95% CI
sGERD duration, age 55–64
 No sGERD2.262.242.309.068.979.160.150.110.190.540.390.73
 >0–10 years2.692.642.7610.4210.2410.580.160.110.210.600.430.79
 >10–20 years5.805.685.8422.3622.2222.880.480.340.702.832.244.04
 >20–40 years21.9621.3123.0835.9535.6136.943.582.495.168.396.5710.88
 >40 years44.4042.0347.6760.2756.4864.6416.489.2026.0724.8812.9842.08
sGERD duration, age 65–74
 No sGERD3.203.173.2616.2516.0716.450.220.150.310.880.611.25
 >0–10 years3.733.693.8217.9117.6018.220.230.150.330.940.651.32
 >10–20 years5.845.765.9434.0533.7534.790.460.270.804.003.115.18
 >20–40 years31.4930.8633.0544.2644.0845.086.925.388.2712.5210.7415.72
 >40 years54.1251.0557.6571.5567.3277.3622.5712.8033.6433.6517.5852.94
sGERD duration, age 75–84
 No sGERD3.493.443.5721.0820.8621.330.270.170.441.160.791.78
 >0–10 years3.903.823.9622.8222.5223.220.290.180.461.220.831.87
 >10–20 years5.105.035.2238.7738.2439.410.380.210.784.062.775.42
 >20–40 years33.7933.1436.1551.1650.9952.288.065.1810.3816.1113.9820.11
 >40 years49.9648.2651.1959.7257.1263.4214.6512.2117.4121.0015.1027.47

NOTE: Model predictions for the absolute risk (per 100,000 individuals) for EAC given sGERD duration (including No sGERD, >0–10 years, >10–20 years, >20–40 years, and >40 years) are shown for males and females for three age groups (55–64, 65–74, and 75–84), and for early years (1975–1984) versus late years (2000–2009) during the 1975–2009 study. Estimates are shown as MCMC medians, including 95% MCMC CIs.