Table 4.

Rates of invasive postmenopausal breast cancer incidence with SDs by age category and race/ethnicity for risk factors in mathematical model for women ≥ 55 years of age and estimated impact of a change (degree change) at the population level of selected modifiable risk factors on incidence per 100,000 women by age at diagnosis and race/ethnic group, California, 2009

Predictive factorDegree changeTotal (White, Black, Latino)SD55–64 ySD65–74 ySD75+ ySDWhiteSDBlackSDLatinaSD
Total observed379314451423430379254
Total simulated393.00.8306.91.3452.71.8450.91.6431.71.1364.12.5245.41.4
Excess BMI50% decrease384.40.8300.41.2442.61.7440.91.5423.31.0349.42.4238.31.4
100% decrease375.80.8293.81.2432.51.6430.91.5414.91.0334.72.2231.21.3
Alcohol consumption25% decrease391.90.8305.91.3451.41.7449.71.6430.51.0363.52.5244.31.4
50% decrease389.50.8303.91.3448.71.7447.11.6427.51.0362.52.5243.61.4
Tobacco use: % of population25% decrease392.00.8305.81.3451.51.8450.11.6430.51.1362.92.5244.81.4
50% decrease390.90.8304.61.3450.31.7449.41.6429.31.1361.82.5244.31.4
Age at menarche1 y increase377.40.8294.31.2434.51.7433.51.5415.31.0346.92.4233.51.4
1.5 y increase371.70.8289.81.2428.01.7427.01.5409.11.0341.42.4229.81.3
HT: % of population50% decrease288.30.7225.21.1332.11.6330.71.4316.71.0267.12.3180.01.3
100% decrease183.70.4143.40.6211.50.8210.70.7201.70.5170.11.2114.70.7

NOTE: Rates were simulated from 100,000 persons with 800 iterations, and were age adjusted to the 2,000 U.S. Standard Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1130: http://www.census.gov/prod/1/pop/p25-1130/p251130.pdf). The simulated incidence rates were from one parameter set using the average value in Table 3.