Table 1.

European mammography service screening balance sheet

BenefitsHarms
Estimates from the reviewsPooled estimates of mortality reduction among screened women range from 38% (IBM studies) to 48% (case–control studies)Estimates of overdiagnosis adjusted for lead-time and breast cancer risk range from 1% to 10%, with a corrected average estimate of 6.5%.
Estimates of cumulative risk of false–positive results range from 8% to 21%, with a pooled estimate of 17% without invasive assessment and 3% with invasive assessment.
Balance sheet
For every 1,000 women ages 50 years screened biennially until 69 years and followed until 79 years:Seven to 9 women's lives are saved (out of 30 deaths expected in the absence of screeninga)Four women are overdiagnosed (67 cancers expected in the absence of screening).
One hundred and seventy women have at least one recall with noninvasive assessment giving a negative result.
Thirty women have at least one recall with invasive assessment giving a negative result.
  • aNineteen of the 30 expected breast cancer–related deaths were diagnosed in ages 50–69.