Table 3.

Sensitivity, specificity, NPV, PPV, colposcopy referral rate, and mean number of repeat tests of seven strategies with baseline triage and repeat testing at 6 months; CIN2+ and CIN3+ cases detected within 4 years were included

Endpoint CIN3+Endpoint CIN2+Total screening population
Baseline triage testRepeat test (t = 6 months)Sensitivity (95% CI)Specificity (95% CI)NPV (95% CI)PPV (95% CI)Sensitivity (95% CI)Specificity (95% CI)NPV (95% CI)PPV (95% CI)Repeat test (95% CI)Colposcopy referral rate (95% CI)Colposcopy referral rate (95% CI)
IV. CytologyHPV100% (97.5–100)34.1% (30.6–38.0)100.0% (98.2–100)22.5% (19.3–26.2)98.8% (96.5–97.7)38.1% (34.1–42.2)99.1% (96.6–99.7)35.0% (31.2–39.0)69.5% (66.7–72.1)71.3% (68.1–74.2)3.57% (3.41–3.71)
V. CytologyCytology94.9% (90.1–97.5)64.7% (60.9–68.4)98.5% (96.8–99.3)34.0% (29.4–39.0)89.2% (84.5–92.6)70.1% (62.2–78.8)95.1% (95.5–96.8)50.2% (45.1–55.2)69.5% (66.7–72.1)44.8% (41.5–48.2)2.24% (2.08–2.41)
VI. CytologyCytology/HPV100.0% (97.5–100)32.0% (24.8–35–7)100% (98.1–100)22.0% (18.8–25.5)99.5% (97.4–99.9)35.7% (31.8–39.9)99.5% (97.2–99.9)34.3% (30.6–38.3)69.5% (66.7–72.1)73.2% (70.1–76.0)3.66% (3.51–3.80)
VII. Cytology/HPV16Cytology98.3% (94.7–99.5)49.5% (45.6–53.3%)99.4% (97.7–98.8)27.2% (23.4–31.4)95.2% (91.5–97.3)54.3% (50.1–58.4)97.1% (94.6–98.5)41.3% (37.0–45.8)50.3% (47.3–53.2)58.2% (55.0–61.4)2.91% (2.75–3.07)
VIII. Cytology/HPV16Cytology/HPV100.0% (97.5–100)25.0% (21.7–28.5)100% (97.6–100)20.4% (17.4–23.7)99.5% (97.4–99.9)27.9% (24.3–31.7)99.4% (96.4–99.9)31.8% (28.3–35.6)50.3% (47.3–53.2)79.1% (76.3–81.6)3.96% (3.82–4.08)
IX. Cytology/HPV16/18Cytology99.2% (96.0–98.8)45.0% (41.2–48.9)99.6% (98.0–99.9)25.6% (22.0–29.6)97.85 (95.0–99.1)50.0% (45.8–54.1)98.6% (96.4–99.4)39.7% (35.5–44.1)45.5% (42.6–48.5)62.1% (58.9–65.1)3.11% (2.95–3.26)
X. Cytology/HPV16/18Cytology/HPV100.0% (97.5–100)23.5% (20.3–26.9)100% (97.4–100)20.0% (17.0–23.3)100.0% (98.3–100)26.4% (22.9–30.2)100% (97.4–100)31.4% (27.9–35.1)45.5% (42.6–48.5)80.3% (77.6–82.7)4.02% (3.88–4.14)