Table 3.

Estimated average annual transition rate in % from carriage of advanced adenoma to carriage of CRC and from carriage of nonadvanced adenoma to carriage of advanced adenoma

MenWomen
TransitionAge, yPE95% CIPbPE95% CIPb
Advanced adenoma to colorectal cancera55–592.62.4–2.9Ref.2.52.2–2.7Ref.
60–643.12.8–3.30.022.72.4–3.00.20
65–693.83.5–4.1<0.00013.83.5–4.1<0.0001
70–745.14.8–5.5<0.00015.04.5–5.4<0.0001
75–795.24.6–5.8<0.00015.64.9–6.3<0.0001
Nonadvanced to advanced adenoma55–594.23.8–4.6Ref.4.03.6–4.5Ref.
60–644.03.6–4.40.603.63.2–4.10.19
65–694.03.6–4.30.453.73.2–4.10.22
70–744.13.6–4.60.854.74.1–5.30.06
75–793.72.9–4.60.383.72.8–4.70.57

NOTE: Base case analyses based on data from the German national screening colonoscopy registry, 2003–2010.

Abbreviation: PE, point estimate.

Estimated transition rate = 0.85 × (2,634/380,875–exp(−1/4.7) × 2,238/371,715)/(24,442/371,715).

  • asample calculation for men of the age of 55 to 59 years, based on the equation 1 given in the statistical methods section and data shown in Table 2, assuming a mean sojourn time of 4.7 years and that 85% of CRCs develop from advanced adenomas:

  • bP for difference from reference group 55 to 59 years.