Table 1.

Transition probabilities (12, 24, and 36 months) for incident HPV16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 45, 52, 58, and 59 infections (with adjudication of CIN lesions infected with multiple HPV types)

PersistenceClearanceCIN1CIN2CIN3
HPV16 (n = 273)
 12 Months57.4 (50.6–63.7)27.7 (22.0–33.6)8.0 (4.4–11.8)5.1 (2.5–8.5)1.7 (0.0–3.8)
 24 Months22.6 (16.4–28.9)57.3 (50.0–64.3)12.6 (7.6–17.8)5.9 (3.0–9.3)1.7 (0.0–3.8)
 36 Months5.4 (0.0–11.2)67.4 (59.1–75.9)17.9 (11.3–24.9)7.6 (3.8–12.4)1.7 (0.0–3.8)
HPV18 (n = 113)
 12 Months43.8 (33.8–53.8)42.5 (32.9–52.2)12.0 (5.8–19.1)1.6 (0.0–4.8)0.0 (-)
 24 Months12.7 (5.3–21.4)69.5 (58.9–79.9)14.3 (7.1–22.7)3.4 (0.0–8.7)0.0 (-)
 36 Months2.5 (0.0–7.8)76.8 (65.9–86.1)16.7 (8.2–25.9)4.0 (0.0–9.9)0.0 (-)
HPV31a (n = 157)
 12 Months53.4 (44.0–62.4)32.2 (25.0–40.1)8.4 (3.5–14.0)4.5 (1.3–8.6)1.5 (0.0–4.4)
 24 Months24.4 (16.2–33.2)54.5 (44.7–64.5)14.1 (7.6–21.1)5.4 (1.6–9.9)1.5 (0.0–4.4)
 36 Months5.8 (0.0–13.0)66.9 (57.4–77.7)18.6 (9.5–28.1)5.4 (1.6–9.9)3.2 (0.0–8.8)
HPV33 (n = 57)
 12 Months55.4 (40.9–69.4)39.7 (26.6–54.0)0.2 (0.0–2.3)4.7 (0.0–11.2)0.0 (-)
 24 Months18.9 (7.6–31.4)69.1 (54.3–83.0)2.3 (0.0–7.3)5.5 (0.0–12.8)4.1 (0.0–10.5)
 36 Months3.0 (0.0–17.6)80.9 (63.4–94.8)2.9 (0.0–10.7)9.1 (0.0–22.8)4.1 (0.0–10.5)
HPV35 (n = 52)
 12 Months46.0 (30.4–61.7)48.3 (32.4–63.4)4.1 (0.0–12.2)1.6 (0.0–7.6)0.0 (-)
 24 Months7.3 (0.0–18.7)76.7 (61.7–90.9)4.1 (0.0–12.2)8.3 (0.0–19.7)3.7 (0.0–12.4)
 36 Months3.6 (0.0–12.3)76.7 (61.7–90.9)7.8 (0.0–19.1)8.3 (0.0–19.7)3.7 (0.0–12.4)
HPV45 (n = 77)
 12 Months44.9 (31.1–57.4)43.6 (30.9–56.9)9.2 (2.7–16.6)2.2 (0.0–7.2)0.0 (-)
 24 Months15.8 (5.3–27.0)72.7 (59.7–85.0)9.2 (2.7–16.6)2.2 (0.0–7.2)0.0 (-)
 36 Months3.5 (0.0–17.1)83.2 (70.1–95.4)9.2 (2.7–16.6)2.2 (0.0–7.2)0.0 (-)
HPV52 (n = 173)
 12 Months57.7 (48.1–65.8)34.4 (26.2–42.8)5.7 (2.1–10.3)2.2 (0.0–5.0)0.0 (-)
 24 Months24.1 (15.7–32.9)62.0 (52.5–71.4)11.6 (5.6–17.9)2.2 (0.0–5.0)0.0 (-)
 36 Months14.2 (5.9–23.4)70.2 (60.1–79.0)13.4 (6.5–22.0)2.2 (0.0–5.0)0.0 (-)
HPV58 (n = 109)
 12 Months56.5 (45.7–66.8)30.8 (20.9–41.3)9.7 (3.4–17.9)2.1 (0.0–5.8)0.9 (0.0–2.8)
 24 Months23.2 (11.7–35.5)58.5 (46.1–71.2)12.0 (5.0–20.9)5.4 (0.0–12.9)0.9 (0.0–2.8)
 36 Months12.6 (0.0–29.6)69.1 (50.9–87.3)12.0 (5.0–20.9)5.4 (0.0–12.9)0.9 (0.0–2.8)
HPV59 (n = 172)
 12 Months39.2 (31.4–47.8)55.9 (47.5–63.8)4.3 (1.3–8.2)0.6 (0.0–1.8)0.0 (-)
 24 Months7.0 (2.3–12.5)86.1 (78.6–92.3)6.4 (2.3–11.7)0.6 (0.0–1.8)0.0 (-)
 36 Months0.1 (0.0–1.5)91.1 (84.5–96.1)6.4 (2.3–11.7)2.4 (0.0–6.8)0.0 (-)

NOTE: All values are given in % (95% CI).

  • aPersistent infection with the longest follow-up time was censored before 36 months (at month 34).