Table 2.

The effect of sequential replacement of parameters for Black women in the White model on the predicted breast cancer mortality rate for Black women 25 years and older for the period 2004 to 2006

White value replaced with Black value (in bold)
Observed (White)None (White model)Demography and incidenceDemography, incidence, and natural historyDemography, incidence, natural history, and screeningDemography, incidence, natural history, and treatmentAll (Black model)observed (Black)
Mortality per 100,00036.137.532.536.938.440.341.949.8
Difference, (obs–pred)17.412.911.59.68.0
% explained by replaced valuea26%8%19%54%
Mortality per 100,00036.137.432.240.141.342.043.249.8
Difference, (obs–pred)
% explained by replaced valuea44%7%11%62%

obs, observed; pred, predicted.

  • aCalculated as the ratio of reduction of the difference between observed and predicted mortality rate and the difference between observed and predicted mortality, taken into account the lower incidence among Black women. So, in MISCAN-Fadia substituting Black natural history parameters into the White model explains 26% of the Black–White differences based on a reduction in the difference from 17.4 to 12.9 per 100,000, or 4.5 of the 17.4 per 100,000, that is, 26%.