Table 3.

The predictive capacity of genetic profiling when there is a mixture of strongly predictive genes and weakly predictive genes

Max ORNo. of genesTotal at high riskCases at high risk (TPR)Controls at high risk (FPR)Expected net benefitNet reclassification indexR2AUC
1.5200.0500.1260.0420.0030.0840.0290.642
500.0790.2100.0640.0070.1460.0480.684
1500.1290.3940.0990.0170.2950.1080.767
2500.1400.4630.1030.0230.3600.1430.794
3500.1450.4920.1050.0260.3880.1630.812
2.0200.1060.3120.0820.0130.2290.0800.723
500.1170.3580.0900.0160.2680.0980.746
1500.1410.4720.1040.0240.3680.1510.802
2500.1450.5160.1030.0280.4130.1800.820
3500.1480.5390.1040.0310.4360.1980.834
3.0200.1400.5150.0980.0290.4170.1910.819
500.1420.5400.0980.0320.4420.2020.830
1500.1500.5900.1010.0360.4890.2410.856
2500.1500.6100.0980.0390.5110.2580.865
3500.150.6220.0980.040.5250.2740.873

NOTE: ORs for the weakly predictive genes vary from 1.05 to 1.15, whereas ORs for the 20 strongly predictive genes vary from 1.15 to max OR. Genes with higher ORs are infrequent, and genes with lower ORs are common. The minor allele frequency of the 50 strongest genes varies from 0.05 to 0.15 and increases by 0.0005 after the 50th gene. The proportion of subjects in the population who have an event is 10%. Subjects with risks exceeding 20% are classified as high risk.