Table 2.

The predictive capacity of genetic profiling under different scenarios defined by the number of genes involved, the OR associated with the high-risk allele, and the population frequency of the risk allele

No. of genesTotal at high riskCases at high risk (TPR)Controls at high risk (FPR)Expected net benefitNet reclassification indexR2AUC
A. Risk allele frequency 5%
    OR 1.0550000000.0010.533
150000000.0030.550
25000.001000.0010.0050.568
3500.0020.0040.00200.0020.0070.574
    OR 1.105000.0010000.0040.560
1500.0090.0240.0080.0010.0160.0130.602
2500.0300.0730.0260.0020.0470.0210.629
3500.0540.1270.0450.0030.0820.0290.648
    OR 1.25500.0280.0750.0230.0020.0520.0260.639
1500.1190.3270.0970.0110.2300.0750.723
2500.1310.4070.1000.0180.3070.1160.768
3500.1320.4590.0960.0240.3630.1570.801
    OR 1.50500.1280.3710.1010.0140.2710.0890.738
1500.1750.6120.1270.0330.4850.2170.842
2500.1310.6030.0770.0430.5260.3020.885
3500.1700.7360.1070.0500.6290.3640.908
B. Risk allele frequency 10%
    OR 1.0550000000.0020.541
1500.0010.0020.00100.0010.0060.568
2500.0060.0140.00500.0090.0100.588
3500.0160.0320.01400.0180.0130.602
    OR 1.10500.0050.0100.00400.0050.0080.582
1500.0380.0900.0320.0020.0580.0240.634
2500.0610.1600.0500.0050.1100.0390.667
3500.0960.2500.0780.0070.1720.0540.694
    OR 1.25500.0740.1950.0600.0060.1360.0470.684
1500.1440.4540.1100.0210.3440.1300.781
2500.1330.5030.0910.0300.4110.1970.829
3500.1440.5900.0950.0380.4960.2530.862
    OR 1.50500.1250.4370.0900.0240.3480.1500.796
1500.1440.6620.0870.0470.5750.3280.897
2500.1660.7770.0980.0560.6790.4200.929
3500.1440.7920.0730.0630.7190.4900.948
C. Risk allele frequency 30%
    OR 1.0550000000.0050.563
1500.0150.0330.01300.0210.0140.607
2500.0370.0870.0310.0020.0560.0240.639
3500.0540.1300.0460.0030.0840.0320.655
    OR 1.10500.0210.0480.0180.0010.0300.0180.620
1500.0940.2470.0770.0070.1700.0550.700
2500.1110.3290.0860.0140.2440.0890.744
3500.1320.4170.1010.0190.3160.1210.777
    OR 1.25500.1160.3580.0880.0160.2690.1000.756
1500.1420.5780.0940.0370.4840.2460.862
2500.1520.6850.0920.0480.5930.3400.904
3500.1510.7380.0850.0550.6520.4070.926
    OR 1.50500.1630.6460.1080.0400.5380.2680.874
1500.1420.7790.0710.0620.7080.4800.947
2500.1520.8670.0730.0700.7940.5760.967
3500.1320.8630.0510.0750.8120.6310.976

NOTE: The proportion of subjects in the population who have an event is 10%. Subjects with risks exceeding 20% are classified as high risk.

Abbreviations: TPR, true-positive rate; FPR, false-positive rate.