Table 2.

The present chance of developing high grade dysplasia

Time since intiationMutation rate (μ)
10−62 × 10−64 × 10−610−5
11 years (8,000 time steps)0.07 (0.01)2.25 (0.74)15.00 (1.79)58.50 (2.46)
22 years (16,000 time steps)2.76 (0.33)15.50 (1.81)36.25 (2.40)74.50 (2.18)
33 years (24,000 time steps)7.72 (0.53)17.25 (1.89)44.75 (2.49)89.00 (1.56)
  • NOTE: Results are based on a neoplasm of 4,096 cells with three dominant and two recessive mutations necessary for HGD, mutation rate μ per locus per cell division, reversible mutations, and mutator phenotype increasing the mutation rate by a factor f = 100. The simulations are stochastic based on the use of a random number generator, and so there is variation in the results across runs. SEs calculated from a Bernoulli process are in parentheses. There were at least 400 runs for each parameter setting.