Table 3

Penetrance analysis

Age (yr)SEER incidence rateaCarrier prevalenceRelative riskCarrier incidence ratePenetrance (%)b (95% confidence)
BRCA1
 20–29.0004.01621.60.0060.6% (0.3%, 1.5%)
 30–39.0040.01621.60.0657% (4%, 16%)
 40–49.0138.0119.60.12218% (12%, 34%)
 50–59.0212.0067.60.15531% (22%, 56%)
 60–69.0292.0067.60.22746% (31%, 80%)
 70–79.0342.0067.60.24959% (40%, 93%)
 80–89.0349.0067.60.25570% (47%, 98%)
BRCA2
 20–29.0004.0123.30.0010.1% (0.0%, 0.5%)
30–39.0040.0123.30.0131.4% (0.0%, 5.4%)
 40–49.0138.0103.30.0456% (2%, 14%)
 50–59.0212.0074.60.08515% (8%, 28%)
 60–69.0292.0074.60.11726% (14%, 50%)
 70–79.0342.0074.60.13738% (20%, 68%)
 80–89.0349.0074.60.14047% (26%, 80%)
  • a Incidence rates are expressed as the probability of developing cancer over the relevant 10-year period. For example, for women aged 60–69, the SEER rate is 292 per 100,000 person-years, which is equivalent to a probability of 0.0292 for an individual woman over this 10-year age range.

  • b Probability of a carrier developing cancer by the end of the age interval.