Article Figures & Data
Figures
- Figure 1.
Baseline and CBMN-extended model ROC curves, overall and by smoking status based on model testing (MGH) population. AUC (Asymt 95% CI): A, overall: Spitz model 60.6% (55.5–65.7), extended Spitz 91.8% (89.4–94.2); B, never smokers: Spitz model 55.1% (44.1–66.1), extended Spitz 91.8% (86.3–97.3); C, former smokers: Spitz model 58.0% (50.5–65.4), extended Spitz 91.0% (87.3–94.8); D, current smokers: Spitz model 66.7% (58.2–75.1), extended Spitz 92.5% (88.5–96.4); P < 0.0001.
Tables
- Table 1.
Distribution of matching variables and variables from the Spitz risk model among cases and controls in the MDACC and MGH populations
MDACC overall (N = 995) MGH overall (N = 511) Case (N = 527) Controls (N = 468) P Case (N = 239) Controls (N = 272) P Matching variables Sex, n (%) male 260 (49.3) 243 (51.9) 0.951 107 (44.8) 114 (41.9) 0.515 Age, mean ± SD 62 ± 10.8 59 ± 12.1 <0.001 65 ± 10.7 64 ± 11.0 0.222 Smoking status, n (%) Never 111 (21.1) 104 (22.2) 37 (15.5) 60 (22.1) Former 221 (41.9) 185 (39.5) 118 (49.4) 122 (44.8) Current 195 (37.0) 179 (38.3) 0.738 84 (35.1) 90 (33.1) 0.166 Spitz model variables Second-hand smoke, n (%) N = 111 N = 104 N = 37 N = 60 among NS 86 (77.5) 84 (80.8) 0.553 27 (73.0) 47 (78.3) 0.626 Quitting age, n (%) among FS N = 221 N = 185 N = 117 N = 122 <42 75 (40.5) 65 (29.4) 45 (38.5) 63 (51.6) 42–53 51 (27.6) 68 (30.8) 30 (25.6) 32 (26.2) ≥54 59 (31.9) 88 (39.8) <0.001 42 (35.9) 27 (22.1) 0.045 Emphysema, n (%) N = 416 N = 364 N = 167 N = 212 0.004 among FS and CS 91 (21.9) 25 (6.8) <0.001 31 (18.6) 18 (8.5) Dust exposure, n (%) N = 416 N = 364 N = 202 N = 212 0.809 among FS and CS 81 (19.5) 44 (12.1) 0.005 26 (12.9) 29 (13.7) No hay fever, n (%) N = 416 N = 364 N = 212 among FS and CS 374 (89.9) 312 (85.7) 0.073 NA 32 (15.1) Asbestos exposure, n (%) N = 195 N = 179 N = 84 N = 90 among FS and CS 59 (30.3) 25 (14.0) <0.001 14 (16.7) 18 (20.0) 0.571 Family history of cancer, n (%) N = 332 N = 289 N = 150 N = 182 0.240 among NS and FS 101 (30.4) 64 (22.2) 0.020 51 (34.0) 51 (28.0) Family history of smoking-related cancers, n (%) N = 195 N = 179 N = 80 N = 90 among CS 75 (38.5) 57 (31.8) 0.181 23 (28.7) 23 (25.6) 0.640 Pack-years, n (%) among CS N = 195 N = 179 N = 69 N = 90 <28 36 (18.5) 76 (42.5) 18 (26.1) 49 (54.4) 28–41.9 45 (23.1) 38 (21.2) 17 (24.6) 16 (17.8) 42–57.4 56 (28.7) 35 (19.6) 16 (23.2) 16 (17.8) ≥57.5 58 (29.7) 30 (16.8) <0.001 18 (26.1) 9 (10.0) 0.002 Abbreviations: P, P value from the χ2 test of association (for categorical variables) and Student test (for continuous variables); NS, never smokers; FS, former smokers; CS, current smokers.
- Table 2.
Distribution of CBMN endpoints among MDACC and MGH populations
MDACC MGH Case (N = 527) Controls (N = 468) Case (N = 239) Controls (N = 272) BN-MN Mean ± SD Mean ± SD Mean ± SD Mean ± SD Overall 3.54 ± 0.99 1.76 ± 0.83 3.60 ± 1.01 1.81 ± 0.87 Age ≤62 3.55 ± 0.97 1.78 ± 0.85 3.72 ± 1.05 1.78 ± 0.91 >62 3.54 ± 1.01 1.73 ± 0.80 3.52 ± 0.97 1.82 ± 0.84 Gender Male 3.52 ± 1.00 1.71 ± 0.82 3.64 ± 1.03 1.73 ± 0.87 Female 3.57 ± 0.98 1.81 ± 0.83 3.56 ± 0.99 1.86 ± 0.87 Smoking Never 3.56 ± 1.02 1.69 ± 0.81 3.62 ± 1.21 1.70 ± 0.81 Former 3.54 ± 0.98 1.73 ± 0.79 3.61 ± 0.93 1.86 ± 0.86 Current 3.54 ± 0.99 1.82 ± 0.87 3.57 ± 1.02 1.80 ± 0.93 BN-NPB Overall 4.25 ± 0.76 0.99 ± 0.62 3.89 ± 1.02 1.02 ± 0.66 Age ≤62 4.28 ± 0.73 0.98 ± 0.57 3.77 ± 1.15 1.01 ± 0.63 >62 4.23 ± 0.78 1.00 ± 0.66 3.91 ± 0.91 1.04 ± 0.64 Gender Males 4.28 ± 0.74 0.99 ± 0.62 3.97 ± 0.88 1.02 ± 0.64 Females 4.22 ± 0.77 0.99 ± 0.62 3.83 ± 1.11 1.03 ± 0.63 Smoking Never 4.18 ± 0.75 0.94 ± 0.59 3.86 ± 0.95 1.03 ± 0.8 Former 4.25 ± 0.75 0.97 ± 0.60 3.94 ± 0.96 1.02 ± 0.62 Current 4.29 ± 0.77 1.04 ± 0.66 3.83 ± 1.12 1.00 ± 0.61 NOTE: Resulting P values from comparing endpoints between cases and controls (BN-MN or BN-NPB) overall or stratified by age, gender, or smoking status. Mean differences between MDACC cases and controls were significant at the 0.0001 level within all strata. Mean differences between MGH cases and control were significant at the 0.0001 level within all strata. Mean BN-MN differences between MDACC cases and MGH cases were not significant (P > 0.05) within all strata. Mean BN-NPB differences between MDACC cases and MGH cases were significant (P < 0.05) within all strata.
- Table 3.
Extension of Spitz lung cancer risk models using CBMN assay endpoints among never, former, and current smokers in the model building (MDACC) population
BN-MN modela Variables OR (95% CI) Never smokers CBMN 16.72 (9.01–31.02) Second-hand smoke 1.12 (0.47–2.68) Family history (≥2)b 1.06 (0.47–2.43) Former smokers CBMN 15.78 (10.16–24.51) Emphysema 2.14 (0.94–4.90) Dusts 1.30 (0.64–2.64) Family history (≥2)b 1.25 (0.73–2.13) Quit age: 42–53 1.23 (0.66–2.27) Quit age: ≥54 1.35 (0.73–2.47) Current smokers CBMN 11.44 (7.40–17.68) Emphysema 4.92 (2.16–11.23) Pack year: 28–41.9 3.66 (1.72–7.76) Pack year: 42–57.4 3.24 (1.52–6.90) Pack year: ≥57.5 5.77 (2.57–12.96) Dusts 1.47 (0.69–3.11) Asbestos 1.67 (0.84–3.32) Family history (≥1)c 1.51 (0.84–2.69) - Table 4.
Positive predictive and negative predictive value for the original Spitz model versus CMBN extension of the model, overall and stratified by smoking status using the model testing (MGH) population
Model PPV (%) NPV (%) Overall Spitz model 55.2 58.5 Extended Spitz with BN-MN 91.1 81.3 Never smokers Spitz model 50.0 58.3 Extended Spitz with BN-MN 91.7 85.0 Former smokers Spitz model 64.4 45.1 Extended Spitz with BN-MN 94.1 78.7 Current smokers Spitz model 43.9 76.7 Extended Spitz with BN-MN 86.4 82.2
Volume 23, Issue 11
