Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention Vol. 9, 523-527, May 2000
© 2000 American Association for Cancer Research
Male Pattern Baldness and Clinical Prostate Cancer in the Epidemiologic Follow-Up of the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey
Ernest Hawk1,
Rosalind A. Breslow and
Barry I. Graubard
Gastrointestinal and Other Cancer Research Group, Division of Cancer Prevention, [E. H.], Applied Research Branch, Division of Cancer Control and Population Science [R. A. B.], and Biostatistics Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics [B. I. G.], National Cancer Institute, NIH, Bethesda, Maryland 20892
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Abstract
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Male pattern baldness (MPB) and prostate cancer are common in American
males; however, MPB is clinically observable decades earlier. Aging,
androgens, and heritability are risk factors for both conditions. We
prospectively studied the association between MPB and clinical prostate
cancer in a cohort representative of the United States male population.
A total of 4,421 men 2575 years old without a history of prostate
cancer were examined for baldness in the Epidemiologic Follow-up Study
of the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.
Participants were followed from baseline (19711974) through 1992.
Incident cases of prostate cancer were identified by interviews,
medical records, and death certificates. Age-standardized incidence
rates and proportional hazards models were used to examine the
association between MPB and clinical prostate cancer. Prostate cancer
was diagnosed in 214 subjects over 1721 years of follow-up. The
age-standardized incidence of prostate cancer was greater among men
with baldness at baseline (17.5 versus 12.5 per 10,000
person-years). The adjusted relative risk for prostate cancer among men
with baldness was 1.50 (95% confidence interval, 1.122.00) and was
similar regardless of the severity of baldness at baseline and was
independent of other risk factors, including race and age. MPB seems to
be a risk factor for clinical prostate cancer.
 |
Introduction
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MPB2
and prostate cancer are prevalent in American men
(1, 2, 3, 4, 5)
. Cosmetically significant MPB (Hamilton type III or
greater) occurs in as many as 70% of men by the age of 80, and
prostate cancer is the most common cancer diagnosed in American men.
However, MPB, a clearly observable trait, generally precedes the
diagnosis of clinical prostate cancer by decades (4, 5, 6)
.
The precise mechanisms leading to the development of MPB and prostate
cancer are largely unknown; however, both conditions share
epidemiological and biological risk factors, including aging, heritable
genetic factors, and androgenic metabolism (7, 8, 9, 10)
.
Because of the commonalities between MPB and prostate cancer and yet
their differences with regard to the timing of phenotypic expression,
we hypothesized that MPB would predict for prostate cancer. We used
data from the NHEFS to examine the relationship between MPB and
incident prostate cancer in a prospective manner.
 |
Materials and Methods
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The NHANES I, a nationally representative cross-sectional survey
of the civilian, noninstitutionalized United States population, was
conducted in 197174; an augmentation survey was conducted in 197475
to supplement the NHANES I. The NHEFS is a prospective cohort study
composed of participants who were 2574 years of age at their baseline
NHANES I or NHANES I augmentation interview (n =
14,407; male n = 5,811). Our NHEFS-based study uses
data from males (n = 4479) interviewed in the 197174
NHANES I survey only; at baseline, each participant had an in-person
interview and a medical examination including a comprehensive
dermatological assessment (data from the augmentation survey were not
used because the primary variable of interest, baldness, was not
ascertained in that survey). The cohort has been periodically
followed-up in 198284, 1986, 1987, and 1992 for vital and health
status of its participants, although no additional assessments of
baldness were conducted. By the end of the 1992 follow-up, about 90%
of the subjects in the cohort had been successfully traced; median
follow-up of the subjects was 18.2 years. Additional details about the
NHEFS have been presented elsewhere (11, 12, 13, 14)
.
Assessment of MPB.
The extent and apparent cause of baldness in the men was determined
during a dermatological examination performed by physician dermatology
residents (15)
. As reported previously, baldness was
characterized as: (a) none, no baldness on initial encounter
or directed examination; (b) mild, no obvious baldness on
initial encounter but baldness on directed examination; (c)
moderate, observable baldness on initial encounter; and (d)
severe, obvious baldness on initial encounter and hair, if present,
limited to scalp fringes (16)
. Men with mild, moderate, or
severe baldness were queried regarding the etiology of their baldness
(i.e., male pattern, alopecia areata, trauma,
antimetabolites, postclimacteric, infections). Because of our
uncertainty related to the use of the term "postclimacteric" in
these men, we performed analyses with and without this subset of men.
No substantial differences were found between these analyses.
Prostate Cancer Ascertainment.
Cases of prostate cancer were determined by asking participants about
medical conditions diagnosed by physicians, overnight hospitalizations,
and stays in nursing homes during the study period. Permission was
obtained to abstract primary data from medical records on admission and
discharge dates, diagnoses, and medical procedures. Trained coders
reviewed the medical records and determined the International
Classification of Disease Codes (ICD-9-CM) for medical conditions
including prostate cancer. Deaths were identified by using the National
Death Index, records from the Health Care Financing Administration, and
other tracing sources. A death certificate was available for about 98%
of decedents in the cohort (14)
. For each male having the
codes ICD 185 (invasive prostate cancer), ICD 233.4 (prostate carcinoma
in situ), v 10.46 (personal history of malignant prostate
neoplasm), or 60.360.5 (prostatectomy surgical procedures), archived
summaries of interviews, records from health care facilities, and
histopathology reports at the National Center of Health Statistics in
Hyattsville, Maryland were reviewed (17)
. For the purposes
of this study, only men with invasive prostate cancer were categorized
as casesapproximately two-thirds from histopathology reports or
medical records and most of the remainder from interviews. Less than
5% of the cases were determined by death certificates. Additional
details on case ascertainment have been presented elsewhere
(17)
.
Analytic Cohort.
Of the 4479 men in the cohort from the NHANES I part of the NHEFS at
baseline, we excluded 10 men with prevalent prostate cancer at baseline
and 48 men who exhibited balding that was attributed to causes other
than MPB, including alopecia areata, infections, postclimacteric,
antimetabolites, or trauma. Thus, our analytic cohort consisted of 4421
men (cases, n = 214; noncases, n =
4207).
Statistical Analyses.
Associations between potential confounding covariates of age, race,
education, region, family history of prostate cancer, and degree of
balding were determined by
2
tests of
independence or ANOVA. Age-adjusted prostate cancer incidence rates
were derived by direct standardization within 10-year-age groups from
25 years of age, using the age distribution of the 1980 United States
male population. Standard methods were used to compute CIs for these
rates (18)
. Adjusted relative hazard rates for clinical
prostate cancer, referred to as RRs throughout the paper, were
estimated using proportional hazard regression analyses. For these
analyses, the response was age to cause-specific incidence of clinical
prostate cancer (19)
. Individuals who died during, or
survived free of prostate cancer throughout, the follow-up period were
censored at age of death or last interview, respectively. The baseline
hazards in the proportional hazard regressions were stratified by year
of age at baseline examination to adjust for the age at which baldness
was determined (i.e., there were 50 strata for ages 2575
at baseline; Ref. 19
). The proportional hazard assumption
was tested and not rejected.
The NHEFS has a complex design that involves sample weighting,
stratification, and clustering. To account for sample weights, design
variables [age<65 versus 65+, residence or nonresidence in
a poverty census enumeration district, family income (<$3,000;
$3,000-$6,999; $7,000-$9,999; $10,000-$14,999; $15,000+), and race
(black and nonblack)] were included in all of the proportional hazard
regression analyses (20)
. The SEs for the adjusted RRs
were computed in two ways: (a) design-based SEs that take
into account the stratification and cluster sampling of the complex
sample design; and (b) model-based SEs that assume that the
sample was a simple random sample (19
, 20) . We chose to
use the larger of the two SEs in all of the statistical tests and CIs.
All of the tests of significance were two-tailed with the level of
significance set at 5%. Descriptive analyses were performed using SAS
v. 6.11 (SAS Institute, Cary, North Carolina). Proportional hazard
regressions were performed using in-house software, which is available
via the
internet3
(19)
. Cumulative incidence curves were compared by the
log-rank test.
 |
Results
|
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The median age at baseline of the 4421 men in our cohort was 55.1
years (range, 25.074.4; Table 1
). Consistent with prior studies, the prevalence of MPB was strongly
associated with aging, involving 19, 33, 50, 56, and 63% of the cohort
within progressive ten-year strata from the lowest age at entry, 25
years old. Men with MPB were more likely to be white (P < 0.001) and less educated (P < 0.001), though there
were no differences in region of residence (P = 0.94).
Relatively few men reported a family history of prostate cancer,
regardless of their degree of baldness at baseline (3%); this is lower
than others estimates of the frequency of positive family histories
(9%), which suggests that this variable is underreported in this
cohort (21)
.
Table 2
shows the age-standardized prostate cancer incidence from baseline
(197174) to 1992, and the RR for prostate cancer from a Cox
regression model adjusting for age at baseline and design variables.
The incidence of clinical prostate cancer was comparatively higher for
men with MPB at baseline compared with those without (17.5
versus 12.5 per 10,000 person-years), although no detectable
trend across the three ordered levels of baldness was observed. The
cumulative incidence curves in Fig. 1
demonstrate differences in the cumulative incidence of prostate cancer
between men with any MPB on the baseline exam versus those
without. Men with MPB had a consistently higher incidence of prostate
cancer compared with those without MPB (P = 0.02),
beginning at approximately 60 years of age. The adjusted RR for
prostate cancer was significantly elevated for men with any degree of
MPB compared with those without MPB (RR, 1.50; P =
0.01). The results of these adjusted RRs were not substantially altered
by the inclusion of additional covariates (e.g., educational
status, region, race, family history of prostate cancer) to the Cox
model. The RRs for prostate cancer by the ordinate level of MPB at
baseline were 1.40, 1.60, and 1.40 for mild, moderate, and severe MPB,
respectively, when compared with no MPB. The RRs were statistically
significant only for the largest subset of men, those with moderate MPB
(P = 0.01).
View this table:
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Table 2 Age-standardized incidence and adjusted RR of prostate cancer by level
of baldness in the NHEFS, 19711974 through
1992a
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View larger version (10K):
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Fig. 1. Cumulative incidence of prostate cancer by baldness in the
Epidemiologic Follow-up Study of the First National Health and
Nutrition Examination Survey, 19711974 through 1992. , no baldness;
. . . ., any baldness.
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Additional analyses of the RR of prostate cancer in men with MPB were
conducted separately within baseline age groups of <55, 5564, and
6574, and within racial groups of nonblack and black. Men with MPB
were at greater risk for prostate cancer within all of the age subsets
compared with those without MPB [<55 years old: RR,
1.56 (CI, 0.773.17); 5564 years old: RR, 1.16 (CI,
0.642.07); 6574 years old: RR, 1.69 (CI, 1.142.46), although
statistically significant RRs were noted only in the oldest subset of
men 6574 years old at entry (P = 0.01), in whom
prostate cancer diagnoses were most frequent (132 cases). Interaction
between these age groups and baldness was not statistically significant
(P = 0.20). MPB was significantly associated with
prostate cancer in both blacks [RR, 2.10 (95%CI, 1.04 - 4.25)] and
nonblacks [RR, 1.42 (95%CI, 1.011.98)]. Although the risk in
blacks was greater than in nonblacks, this difference was not
statistically significant (P = 0.22).
 |
Discussion
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Men with MPB had an approximate 50% excess risk for clinical
prostate cancer. The positive association between MPB and clinical
prostate cancer was similar regardless of the degree of MPB and was
independent of several known risk factors, including age, race, and
family history of prostate cancer. The association was strongest in
elderly men and blacks.
Although five prior case-control studies did not identify a significant
association between MPB and prostate cancer (22, 23, 24, 25, 26)
, they
may have been limited by: (a) small sample sizes (most did
not power their studies to specifically investigate the relationship
between baldness and prostate cancer; Refs. 22
, 24, 25, 26
);
(b) photographic rather than clinical assessments of
baldness (23)
; (c) incomplete case
ascertainment because of the use of death records alone
(23)
; (d) limited statistical analyses
(23)
; or (e) difficulties in control group
selection. Strengths of our study include its prospective design, large
sample size, extended follow-up, and generalizability attributable to
nationally representative sampling. In addition, classification of
exposure and outcome variables were improved by the use of
dermatological physician exams for MPB and cancer diagnoses derived
from a variety of sources, with medical or pathological confirmation in
the majority of instances. Any residual misclassification in clinical
prostate cancer diagnoses should be nondifferential, tending to bias
risk estimates toward the null.
Limitations of our study include our inability to obtain detailed
information on the patterns of baldness (i.e., frontal,
vertex, and so forth) and the incidence or rate of progression of MPB
in men over time. Both the specific pattern of MPB and its rate of
progression have been identified as risk determinants for other chronic
conditions, including several cardiovascular outcomes (27
, 28)
. Another limitation was the age composition of our cohort.
Approximately 33% of our cohort had not yet reached the advanced age
range in which clinical prostate cancer is typically manifest
(6)
, thus limiting the effective power of our study. The
analyses conducted separately for age groups demonstrate this, inasmuch
as those in the 64+ years-of-age group were the only subset with a
statistically significant increased risk for clinical prostate cancer
(see "Results").
We did not find a dose-response relationship between the extent of MPB
and the risk of prostate cancer. This is not particularly surprising.
Whereas the extent of MPB offered a biologically plausible and testable
hypothesis related to the issue of "dose," other measures
(e.g., time of MPB onset, rate of MPB progression) may
provide better estimates of the dose of the presumed common
mechanistic factor(s) underlying these conditions. In addition, our
ability to measure the extent of MPB was crude; therefore, measurement
errors may account for our failure to identify a dose-response
relationship. Finally, we are using the concept of dose in a
nontraditional way here because the measure of exposure is physically
remote from the response of interest. Indeed, it would not be unusual
for a common mechanistic factor to contribute to each condition in a
different mannerdeterminative in one yielding a threshold
relationship, and merely permissive in the other resulting in a more
continuous association.
A link between MPB and prostate cancer may be explained by aging,
heritable genetic factors, or androgen metabolism; all of these are
presumed to play substantial roles in both conditions (8
, 29
, 30)
. MPB may represent a biological measure of aging that
transcends chronological measures. If this is the case, MPB may predict
aging-related pathological processes [such as carcinogenesis or
atherogenesis, which tend to remain clinically silent until advanced
stages of disease] better than calendar time.
Genetic susceptibility to MPB and prostate cancer are well-described,
although the specific genetic lesions responsible have not been
identified. Consideration should be given to the possibility that
heritable genetic factors may reside in the specific tissues
themselves, at least in the case of MPB, because the bilaterality and
regional variation of baldness in the scalps of men with MPB would
argue in favor of region-specific molecular factor(s) determined early
in life, rather than for a systemic factor, such as serum androgens,
alone.
Finally, androgens seem to be necessary, although not solely causative,
in the pathogenesis and clinical expression of MPB and prostate
carcinogenesis. In both the scalp and prostate,
5
-dihydrotestosterone (DHT) is considered to be the primary
physiological androgen and is the result of the action of
5
-reductase on testosterone (7
, 30)
. Recently, two
isoforms of 5
-reductase have been identified with differing pHs,
activities, inhibitor sensitivities, and tissue distributionsalthough
each isoform seems to be present in scalp and prostatic tissues
(31, 32, 33)
. Tissue from affected scalps of men with MPB and
from prostates harboring cancer demonstrate enhanced 5
-reductase
activities (34, 35, 36)
. Finasteride, a relatively specific
inhibitor of the type II isoenzyme, is now an approved treatment for
benign prostatic hypertrophy and MPB (37, 38, 39, 40)
and
is under investigation as a preventive agent for prostate cancer
(41)
.
In summary, we found a significantly increased risk for prostate cancer
among men with MPB, independent of established risk factors including
aging and race. Although remote from the prostate, MPB may represent an
early, clinically obvious marker of susceptibility and may provide
clues to the pathogenesis of prostate cancer.
 |
Footnotes
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The costs of publication of this article were defrayed in part by the payment of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked advertisement in accordance with 18 U.S.C. Section 1734 solely to indicate this fact.
1 To whom requests for reprints should be
addressed, at National Cancer Institute/Division of Cancer
Prevention/Gastrointestinal and Other Cancer Research Group, EPN, Suite
201, 6130 Executive Boulevard, Bethesda, MD 20892-7322. Phone: (301)
594-2731; Fax: (301) 435-6344; E-mail: eh51p{at}nih.gov 
2 The abbreviations used are: MPB, male pattern
baldness; NHEFS, Epidemiologic Follow-up Study of the NHANES I; NHANES
I, first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; RR, relative
risk; CI, confidence interval. 
3 "Cox Regression for Survey Data" at,
http://dcp.nci.nih.gov/BB/Software.html#cox. 
Received 8/10/99;
revised 1/10/00;
accepted 1/24/00.
 |
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