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Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 [C. C., M. W. M., G. A.]; Cancer Prevention Research Program, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington 98109 [M. W. M., N. U., G. A.]; and Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and the University of California, Los Angeles, California 90048 [B. Y. K.]
| Abstract |
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| Introduction |
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Research into noninvasive first-line screening techniques has focused on serum tumor markers and TVS.2 TVS can detect ovarian cancer with a sensitivity approaching 100%, but it is insufficiently specific and too expensive for use as a first-line screen. A multimodal strategy using TVS only in women with a positive serum tumor marker screen appears to be the most promising alternative to lowering error rates and improving cost-effectiveness. Such an approach requires that all positive first-line tumor marker screenings be evaluated by TVS before a definitive surgical diagnosis is sought.
Ovarian cancers evolve from different cell types, and therefore may require different tumor-associated antigens for monitoring or diagnostic screening. Using monoclonal antibody assays, a large number of markers have been identified that are associated with epithelial ovarian carcinomas. CA125, the most extensively studied of these, is a high molecular weight glycoprotein expressed by most epithelial ovarian cancers. Elevations of CA125 in the serum may precede stage III ovarian cancer by 10 to 12 months (2) , but the percentage of women with stage I disease who have an elevated CA125 level (>35 units/ml) ranges from only 23 to 50% (3 , 4) . CA125 has an established role in the monitoring of patients with known ovarian cancer, but in its present use has been insufficiently sensitive and specific to be very effective as a diagnostic screening tool for early-stage disease.
Other candidate markers with a potential role in ovarian cancer diagnostic screening include UGP, LASA, DM/70K, and HER-2/neu. In some populations UGP has been a sensitive marker for gynecological malignancies, with a specificity exceeding 90% for ovarian cancer (5) . LASA is a marker for malignant disease on the basis of elevated sialoglycoconjugate levels associated with tumor growth (6) , but it is relatively nonspecific for ovarian cancer (7) . The DM/70K marker is immunologically distinct from CA125 and potentially a good adjunct; it was extracted from epithelial ovarian tumor tissue and can be found in patients with epithelial ovarian tumors of all histological types, including mucinous tumors (8) . HER-2/neu encodes a transmembrane glycoprotein shed into the sera of some patients with ovarian cancer. Amplification of the HER-2/neu oncogene has been associated with poor survival in patients with ovarian cancer whose tumors overexpress this oncogene (9) . HER-2/neu is amplified or overexpressed in 25 to 30% of ovarian carcinomas, though its usefulness for screening has not yet been demonstrated (10 , 11) .
Recent efforts to improve ovarian cancer screening have focused on modeling longitudinal tumor marker measurements, and on jointly monitoring CA125 with other markers. Skates et al. (12) proposed a screening algorithm based on a linear regression model of serial CA125 measurements which yielded a positive predictive value of 16%, substantially greater than that based on a single assay (<2%). This work helped demonstrate the substantial potential benefit of using longitudinal biomarker measurements in ovarian cancer screening. Algorithms that include multiple markers have yielded mixed results. A combination of CA125, M-CSF, and OVX-1 detected more than 95% of stage I ovarian cancers in a retrospective postmenopausal cohort, with specificity approaching 90% (13) . Other studies have suggested that the joint elevation of CA125 with adjunct markers may provide a more specific test than CA125 alone, but at the expense of decreased sensitivity (14) .
Cane et al. (15) described trends between first and second measurements of CA125, LASA, DM/70K, UGP, and HER-2/neu in 425 premenopausal and 165 postmenopausal healthy women enrolled in the Gilda Radner Ovarian Cancer Detection Program. These data suggested that plateaus of elevated values may be more frequent in healthy women than was previously believed. Although 80% of elevated first-screen LASA, CA125, and DM/70K markers returned to normal levels on a second screening, over half of elevated HER-2/neu and UGP values remained elevated. These findings suggested that current definitions of normal tumor marker values should be reevaluated.
If the normal behavior of tumor markers is heterogeneous among healthy women, the use of a fixed screening cutoff level will not optimally detect elevations from each individuals baseline. Most screening protocols to date have relied on a fixed cutoff for all individuals screened and thus have not taken advantage of information on heterogeneity of tumor marker levels among individuals [the algorithm by Skates et al. (12) is one exception]. To establish optimal screening rules for what is abnormal, a better recognition of the normal behavior of tumor markers in cancer-free women is clearly needed. The main objective of this analysis was to describe such behavior of five tumor markers in a large cohort of women at high risk of ovarian cancer.
| Materials and Methods |
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Statistical Analysis.
To assess for heterogeneity of tumor marker levels among women, ANOVA
was used to estimate between-person variance
(
2
), within-person variance
(
2
), and intraclass correlation
(ICC =
2
/[
2
+
2
]) separately for all five
tumor markers. ICC is the proportion of total variability in tumor
marker levels accounted for by variability among mean levels of
different individuals. Heterogeneity of individual means was tested
using the overall ANOVA F statistic, and heterogeneity of individual
variances was tested using Bartletts
2
statistic.
Empirical Bayes analysis was used to estimate individual-specific tumor
marker means and standard deviations (17
, 18)
. For the
estimation of multiple means, empirical Bayes analysis gives better
(least mean squared error) unbiased estimates than any other known
method. Individual means are estimated as an empirical posterior
distribution, using all available data from the cohort to form a prior
distribution. The individual means are estimated intermediate between
the arithmetic within-person mean and the overall cohort mean. The
amount of "shrinkage" toward the overall mean is 1 minus a
shrinkage factor which resembles the ICC and is a function of the
number and variability of measurements observed for the individual
(shrinkage factor: B(n) =
2
/[
2
+
2
/n]). Empirical Bayes
estimation is easily extended to multivariate models using two or more
tumor markers. [See Efron and Morris (19)
for a good
nontechnical introduction to the empirical Bayes method.]
A hierarchical Bayes linear model (20)
was used to
characterize the bivariate behavior of CA125 and HER-2/neu.
The hierarchical Bayes approach can be used to estimate
individual-level means (µi) and standard
deviations (
i) by combining multiple
individuals tumor marker distributions and to estimate the
variability of µi in the population (
) and
the variability of
i in the population. This
methodology can incorporate random variation at different levels
(within-person [
2
] and between-person
[
2
] variance) and the effect of specific
factors (e.g., menopausal status) that may cause
heterogeneity in tumor marker patterns among women.
| Results |
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180 days since last menstrual period at all
observations), and 8.4% were perimenopausal (
40 and <180 days since
last menstrual period for at least one observation or changed
menopausal status during follow-up). Average ages were 56 years for
postmenopausal women and 41 years for premenopausal women. Descriptive
statistics for all five tumor markers by menopausal status are shown in
Table 2
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ICC was estimated separately for each tumor marker. High ICC implies
that a large proportion of data variability occurs among individual
mean levels, and thus is suggestive of true heterogeneity among women.
When ICC is substantial in magnitude, one can expect substantial
improvement when using information from longitudinal screening compared
with a single threshold rule (12)
. Estimates of ICC were
approximately 0.6 for log CA125 and log UGP, 0.4 for LASA, 0.3 for log
HER-2/neu, and 0.2 for log DM/70K (Table 3)
. These estimates suggest considerable heterogeneity in individual
tumor marker means, particularly for log CA125 and log UGP.
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The five tumor markers we studied behaved approximately independently
as indicated by small pairwise correlations. Pearson correlation
coefficients based on the total cohort data ranged from -0.13 to 0.26
(Table 4)
. When examined by menopausal status, the magnitudes of these
correlations were not substantially changed (data not shown).
|
) for log CA125 and log HER-2/neu; and
the between-person
, an estimate of correlation between
individual-specific log CA125 and log HER-2/neu means. For
two representative individuals, estimates of within-person mean
(µi), SD (
i), and
correlation (
i) of log CA125 and log
HER-2/neu are presented also (Table 5)
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| Discussion |
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The CA125 mean level was significantly lower and the UGP mean level significantly higher among postmenopausal compared with premenopausal women. These findings have been reported previously (15 , 21 , 22) . We also observed that DM/70K and LASA mean levels were higher, and the HER-2/neu mean level lower, among postmenopausal compared with premenopausal women. For LASA and HER-2/neu these differences were slight, but all comparisons were statistically significant.
Individual-specific tumor marker characteristics were also estimated for this cohort of 1257 women. These women had very heterogeneous patterns of all five markers studied, particularly CA125. The overall CA125 mean was 25 units/ml with wide 95% reference centiles (675 units/ml), indicating substantial heterogeneity of individual mean levels. The average CA125 SD was 12 units/ml, also with wide 95% reference centiles (0.756 units/ml), suggesting substantial heterogeneity of individual-specific variability. Fifteen percent of premenopausal women and 2% of postmenopausal women had a first-screen CA125 level exceeding 35 units/ml, and 68% and 57% of these women, respectively, had a recurrent elevation on the second screen without development of ovarian cancer. ICC, the best summary indicator of heterogeneity among individuals, was nearly 0.6 for log CA125 and log UGP, and less than 0.4 for LASA, log DM/70K, and log HER-2/neu. These findings suggest that tumor marker patterns are substantially heterogeneous even among healthy, cancer-free women.
Approximate independence of the tumor markers that we studied gives a clinically useful result. The combined false-positive rate from screening with multiple markers is well estimated by the sum of individual false-positive rates of the markers, provided that the specificity of markers is reasonably high (as is usually the case for reasonable screening candidates). For instance, in postmenopausal women that we studied, a CA125 cutoff level of 35 units/ml gave a specificity of 0.98 (the probability of a negative test in the absence of disease), and the HER-2/neu standard cutoff level of 20 units/ml gave a specificity of 0.95. Because these markers were approximately independent, the combined specificity of both tests used jointly is 0.98 x 0.95 = 0.931, and the probability of at least one false-positive test is 1 - 0.931 = 0.069. The latter is very closely estimated by the sum of individual false-positive rates (1 - specificity) for these markers, 0.02 + 0.05 = 0.07.
The heterogeneity of tumor marker patterns observed among women in this cohort underscores the need for incorporating individual-specific decision rules in screening protocols. To date, most diagnostic tests using tumor markers have not accounted for a womans screening history in the evaluation of tumor marker levels. In screening, a fixed cutoff level is suboptimal to a degree that depends strongly on the ICC. It is because of this phenomenon that the algorithm by Skates et al. (12) performed better than the conventional use of CA125. Using serial measurements of tumor markers, individualspecific screening rules may be developed that use all available information on the individual level as well as on the screening population level. This approach to screening, extended to multiple markers, will require information on ICCs of markers such as are presented in this study.
| Footnotes |
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1 To whom requests for reprints should be
addressed, at 5307 Ravenna Place NE, #3, Seattle, WA 98105. Phone:
(206) 985-8615; E-mail: kccrump{at}u.washington.edu ![]()
2 The abbreviations used are: TVS, trans-vaginal
sonography; UGP, urinary gonadotropin peptide; LASA, lipid-associated
sialic acid; DM/70K, Dianon marker 70/K; ICC, intraclass correlation. ![]()
Received 2/28/00; revised 7/ 7/00; accepted 7/21/00.
| References |
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