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Departments of Preventive Medicine and Environmental Health [J. R. C., A. S. P., S. D. P., B. C-H. C., C. F. L., J. C. T.] and Pathology and Urology [M. B. C.], The University of Iowa College of Medicine, Iowa City, Iowa 52242, and Occupational Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland 20892 [K. P. C.]
| Abstract |
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| Introduction |
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Although family history represents both shared genetic and environmental factors and their interaction, only four studies have addressed confounding beyond the role of age (16, 17, 18 , 28) , and only three studies have specifically addressed potential confounding by dietary factors (16 , 18 , 28) . Case-control studies are also susceptible to selection bias. Although hospital-based case-control studies are particularly susceptible to selection bias, population-based case-control studies can also be affected by this type of bias due to low overall response rates. Only five of the case-control studies have specifically reported response rates of >70% for both cases and controls (7 , 8 , 17, 18, 19) , and only three of these were population-based (17, 18, 19) . Selection bias may also occur if controls with a family history of cancer are more likely to participate. Finally, case-control studies are susceptible to recall bias. Cases may differentially report their family cancer history compared with controls, particularly healthy controls. The cohort study design can overcome these potential biases, but to our knowledge there are no published cohort studies of family history of cancer and prostate cancer incidence. We present data on this association using a population-based cohort of 1557 Iowa men, ages 4086 years, at baseline whose cancer experience over an average of 6.1 years of follow-up was determined by linkage to a statewide cancer registry.
| Materials and Methods |
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Data Collection.
Respondents in the at-risk cohort completed a mailed questionnaire (89.9%), a full-length telephone interview (4.4%), or an abbreviated interview (5.6%). Data collected included demographics, education, and occupational history; weight and height; a detailed smoking history, including use of cigarettes, cigars, pipes, snuff, and chewing tobacco; a food frequency questionnaire assessing usual adult consumption of 55 items including beer, wine, and liquor use; number of brothers and number of sisters related by blood; and family history of cancer among biological parents and siblings, including type of cancer(s). BMI was calculated as weight (kilograms) divided by height (meters) squared. Nutrient intake values were calculated using the consumption frequency data from the questionnaire, and sex-specific portion sizes and food consumption data from the NHANES II nutrient database (37)
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Follow-up.
We linked to several databases to passively follow this cohort of men. Computer linkages were based on a combination of social security number, first and last name, birthdate, sex, baseline city, and zip code. Cancer incidence from 1986 through 1995 was ascertained by linking to the State Health Registry of Iowas statewide cancer database, which is part of the National Cancer Institutes SEER Program (38)
. The Iowa Cancer Registry collects cancer data, including identifying information, tumor site, morphology, histological grade, and extent of disease on all persons who are Iowa residents at the time of their diagnosis. All tumor stage and grade data were derived from pathology reports of the diagnosing pathologist, and there was no centralized review of the tumor material. Topographic and morphological data were coded using the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, Second Edition(39)
. Through 1995, 274 men were diagnosed with cancer, including 103 men with prostate cancer (International Classification of Diseases for Oncology code 61.9). Two of the prostate cancers were diagnosed before the questionnaire was received by the study staff, and exclusion of these two prevalent cases reduced the at-risk cohort to 1575.
The stage of the prostate cancer was categorized using the following SEER summary staging codes (40) : localized (confined to the gland, no extracapsular extension), regional (extracapsular extension and into adjacent tissue or lymph node involvement), distant (metastatic), and unstaged. The tumor grade was also based on the pathology report, and was categorized according to SEER rules (41) into well, moderately, or poorly differentiated, or unknown. Similar to West et al.(42) , we also categorized prostate cancers into a subset that we termed significant disease, which was defined as all prostate cancers that were moderately or poorly differentiated or were staged as regional or distant (irrespective of grade); this eliminated 22 well-differentiated and localized tumors and 9 tumors with insufficient stage and/or grade data to be classified.
The vital status of the cohort was ascertained using three approaches. First, all men were linked to a database of Iowa death certificates housed at the State Health Registry of Iowa, and 456 Iowa deaths were identified through August 1996. Second, all men who were not identified in the Iowa mortality database (n = 1121) were linked to the state of Iowa drivers license database, which includes the social security number (usually the drivers license number). This database also includes persons with Iowa identifications for those who do not or no longer drive. The Drivers license database includes the date of issue and most recent (February 1997) status of the license (or identification; i.e., valid, revoked, surrendered, suspended, or expired). One thousand ninety men (97.2% of 1121) linked to this database. Finally, all men who were not identified in the Iowa mortality database (n = 1121) were also linked to the HCFA Medicare enrollment database in September 1996. This database contains the names of all persons enrolled in Medicare, and includes date of death for recent decedents. Eight hundred fifty men (75.8% of 1121) linked to this database, 9 of whom were deceased (death occurred outside of Iowa) and 97 of whom were alive but did not link to the Iowa drivers license database. Three men did not link to any of these databases and were excluded, leaving 1572 men in the at-risk cohort.
Statistical Analysis.
Because we could only identify prostate cancers occurring in Iowa residents, each man in the at-risk cohort was allocated person-years of follow-up from the date of receipt of the questionnaire to one of the following events (in order of priority): (a) date of prostate cancer diagnosis; (b) date of death, if the death occurred in Iowa; (c) date last identified with a valid Iowa drivers license; or (d) the midpoint between the baseline date and June 30, 1996, for persons identified only in the HCFA enrollment database. Because the cancer data were complete only through December 31, 1995, this was the closing date for these analyses. We also excluded an additional 15 men who had no data on family history of cancer, leaving an at-risk cohort 1557. Of this at-risk cohort, 60 (3.9%) were censored for a presumed move out of Iowa (i.e., death occurred outside Iowa, a surrendered Iowa Drivers license), 22 (1.4%) were censored because they were only identified in the HCFA database, and 371 (23.8%) were censored because of death in Iowa.
Family history and other variables of interest were categorized into natural categories. Dietary variables were categorized into three levels of consumption based on tertile cutpoints in the cohort. Alcohol use was categorized into no present use, use below the median (6.4 g/day), or use at or above the median. Tobacco use was defined as use of cigarettes, cigars, pipes, chewing tobacco, or snuff for >6 months. RRs and 95%
CIs were used as the measure of association between these exposure categories and prostate cancer incidence. The Mantel-Haenszel procedure (43)
was used to estimate age-adjusted RRs, and Cox proportional hazards (44)
regression was used to estimate multivariate-adjusted RRs. The following independent risk factors in this dataset were included in the final model: age (continuous); alcohol intake (none, <6.4,
6.4 g/day); and consumption of carbohydrate (<200, 200227, >227 g/day), saturated fat (<75.5, 75.584.7, >84.7 g/day), linoleic acid (<9.3, 9.311.0, >11.0 µg/day), lycopene (<244, 244557, >557 µg/day), and red meat (<4.8, 4.87.4, >7.4 servings/week). We adjusted all dietary factors for total energy intake, and used the residual method for adjustment of macronutrients (45)
. Height, body mass, and tobacco use were also considered and eventually removed from the final multivariate model.
| Results |
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We were also interested in whether a family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer in the mother or sisters was associated with prostate cancer risk. We included a history of ovarian cancer because breast and ovarian cancer aggregate in families and may be genetically linked, particularly by the BRCA1 gene. Compared with men with no history of breast/ovarian cancer in a mother or sister, men with a family history of a breast/ovarian cancer in a mother (RR = 2.0; 95% CI, 1.04.1) or a mother or sister (RR = 1.7; 95% CI, 1.03.0) were at elevated risk of prostate cancer, and these point estimates were not materially changed after multivariate adjustment (Table 3)
. There was only a slight, not statistically significant, increase in risk in men with a family history of a breast/ovarian cancer in a sister (RR = 1.3; 95% CI, 0.52.9), which attenuated after multivariate adjustment. Only 13 men had more than one first-degree female relative with a history of breast/ovarian cancer, so we could not estimate prostate cancer risk according to number of family members with breast/ovarian cancer.
Men with a history of either breast/ovarian or prostate cancer had a doubling in the risk of prostate cancer (95% CI, 1.33.2), whereas men with a family history of both breast and prostate cancer were 5.8 times more likely to develop prostate cancer (95% CI, 2.414). Multivariate adjustment did not attenuate these point estimates.
A second set of multivariate models, adjusting for the same factors listed in Table 3
as well as tobacco use, BMI, height, and farming occupation, did not materially affect the point estimates reported in Table 3
(data not shown).
We next stratified the cohort into two baseline age groups (4069 years and 7086 years) and evaluated the association of prostate and breast/ovarian family histories with risk of prostate cancer (Table 4)
. RR estimates were stronger for a history of prostate cancer in the father or father or brother among younger men, but were similar for men with one or more brothers with prostate cancer among both younger (RR = 4.8; 95% CI, 1.516) and older (RR = 4.2; 95% CI, 1.512) men. In contrast, a family history of breast/ovarian cancer in the mother was a stronger risk factor among older men, whereas a family history of breast/ovarian cancer in a sister was only a risk factor among younger men. Finally, a family history of prostate and breast/ovarian was a stronger risk factor among older (RR = 7.8; 95% CI, 2.922) compared with younger (RR = 2.5; 95% CI, 0.318) men, although these RRs were based on only four cases and one case, respectively.
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| Discussion |
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To our knowledge, this is the first population-based cohort study of family history and risk of incident prostate cancer that also adjusts for major confounding factors. In the only other cohort study published to date, Rodriguez et al.(28) found that a family history of prostate cancer in a first-degree relative was associated with an increased risk of fatal prostate cancer after adjustment for age, race, education, BMI, physical activity, intake of vegetables and fat, smoking status, and vasectomy (RR = 1.60; 95% CI = 1.311.97). Our results for a family history of prostate cancer confirm results from case-control (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19) , cross-sectional (20 , 21) , and family (22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27) studies and suggest that these studies were not greatly affected by selection or recall biases. In addition, our prevalence estimates for a family history of prostate cancer in a father or brother (4.6%) agree well with estimates for whites in other population-based studies, which have ranged from 2.88.3% (13 , 16, 17, 18 , 21 , 28) . Finally, our results are consistent with the limited number of studies that have found that the family history and prostate cancer association is not likely to be confounded by dietary or other lifestyle factors (16 , 18 , 28) . However, no study, including ours, has measured lifestyle factors among members of a family, and there is evidence, for example, that adult siblings living apart share dietary patterns as much alike as has been described for monozygotic twins or familial correlations of serum cholesterol (46) .
We found that the family history was a stronger risk factor for younger men (4069 years) than older men, although the risks were still elevated in the latter group, consistent with some, but not all, published data (16, 17, 18, 19 , 28) . Consistent with prior studies, there was little difference in the mean age at diagnosis between family history positive and negative cases (7, 8, 9 , 16 , 20) . Increasing numbers of first-degree relatives with prostate cancer (7 , 16 , 25 , 28) , younger age at onset of prostate cancer among affected relatives (18 , 25 , 28) , and a family history of prostate cancer among second-degree relatives (7 , 8 , 24) have also been associated with elevated prostate cancer risk. We were unable to address these issues due to the lack of a sufficient number of families with multiple affected relatives as well as not having family history data on relatives beyond parents and siblings or the age of diagnosis of the cancers, and these are important limitations of this study.
One concern in a study of family history and prostate cancer incidence is that a detection bias might inflate the observed association. In this context, men with a family history of prostate cancer might be more likely to undergo regular screening or seek medical care for early symptoms of prostate cancer and, thus, have their tumors detected earlier than men without a family history. Indeed, our data, consistent with other population-based case-control studies (17 , 18) , suggest that this may be occurring to some extent because the association with family history is somewhat stronger for local disease at diagnosis compared with regional or distant disease. Nevertheless, the risk is still elevated (RRs >2.0) for regional/distant disease in these studies, suggesting that a detection bias could only account for a portion of the observed association.
Other studies also support the idea that familial prostate cancer is likely to have a genetic component and is not due solely to bias or confounding. Carter et al.(25) conducted a segregation analysis of 691 families ascertained through a prostate cancer proband with localized disease suitable for radical prostatectomy and seen at a United States tertiary care hospital. Familial clustering in their data were best explained by an autosomal dominant gene, with a rare allele (q = 0.0030) that was highly penetrant (88% of the carriers were predicted to develop disease by age 85 years). Gronberg et al.(47) conducted a segregation analysis using a population-based sample of 2,857 nuclear families selected through a father diagnosed with prostate cancer in Sweden from 19591963. They found that the best explanation for the observed clustering was also autosomal dominant transmission, but with an allele with a high population frequency (q = 0.0167) and a moderate lifetime penetrance (63%). The latter authors suggested that the difference in gene frequency and penetrance found in their study may be due to the different populations studied, different ascertainment procedures, or that there may be multiple prostate cancer genes. Consistent with the last explanation, a linkage study of 91 hereditary prostate cancer families (48) found a major susceptibility locus on chromosome 1q2425 (HPC1), but only 33% of the families were linked to this region, suggesting that other prostate cancer genes must exist. Other linkage studies have been directed at sites with known tumor suppressor genes or loci showing loss of heterozygosity in prostate cancer (e.g., 8p, 10q or 16q); however, they have not yet identified a prostate cancer susceptibility locus (49, 50, 51) .
Prostate cancer has also been hypothesized to have an X-linked or recessive mode of inheritance. Narod et al.(20) , in a cross-sectional study of a Canadian screening program, noted that participants with one or more brothers with prostate cancer had a 2.6-fold greater risk of prostate cancer compared with those with no affected first-degree relatives (95% CI, 1.74.1), whereas participants with a father with prostate cancer had a 1.2-fold increase in risk (95% CI, 0.81.9). They suggested that this was consistent with a recessive or X-linked model of inheritance. Monroe et al.(21) , in a cross-sectional study, found an excess risk of prevalent prostate cancer in men with brothers affected with prostate cancer compared with men with affected fathers (RR = 2.07; P <0.00005). We found that prostate cancer risk was greater if a brother had a history of prostate cancer (RR = 4.5; 95% CI, 2.19.7) than a father (RR = 2.3; 95% CI, 1.05.3), although our study was too small to evaluate whether the two RRs differed from a statistical perspective. Most (11 , 13 , 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21) , but not all (7 , 8 , 14 , 28) , previous studies have shown stronger RR estimates for a history of a brother having a prostate cancer than a father. The X-linked hypothesis is of interest because the gene for the androgen receptor is located on the X-chromosome and polymorphisms in this gene have been linked to prostate cancer risk (52, 53, 54) .
These data are also consistent with most previous studies that suggest that a family history of breast cancer may also be a prostate cancer risk factor (17 , 24 , 26 , 33) , although one clinic-based study of highly selected patients found no association (10) . Although we found that the risk of prostate cancer was greater if the mother had breast/ovarian cancer than if the sister was affected, a population-based case-control study (17) found that family history of breast cancer was a stronger prostate cancer risk factor if a sister had breast cancer (OR = 1.8; 95% CI, 1.13.0) than if the mother had breast cancer (OR = 1.0; 95% CI 0.61.7). The latter associations need further evaluation, including the need for studies that include breast as well as ovarian cancer in the family history definition.
We found little evidence that a family history of colorectal cancer was associated with prostate cancer risk. One previous family study (26) found that relatives of prostate cancer probands were at elevated risk of colon cancer (familial relative risk = 1.26; 95% CI, 1.11.4), whereas one population-based case-control study found that a family history of colon cancer was a weak, nonsignificant prostate cancer risk factor among blacks but not whites (17) .
There are several limitations to this study not yet discussed. Family history of cancer was based on self-reports that were not verified. However, self-report of cancer in a first-degree relative, particularly breast and prostate, has been shown to be relatively accurate (16 , 55) . Family history of cancer was assessed only at a single point in time, and misclassification of family history could bias our estimates, although likely toward the null. In addition, given the relatively short period of follow-up (median of 6.8 years), any such bias should be small.
The strengths of this study include a cohort study design, the use of a SEER cancer registry for case ascertainment, nearly complete follow-up of the at-risk cohort, adjustment for major potential confounding factors, and the use of a population-based sample with a high participation rate. On the basis of Iowa age-specific prostate cancer rates for the years 19881995 (56) , we would have expected approximately 95 prostate cancers in this cohort compared with the 101 identified. The latter point gives this study a high generalizability to other white men of European descent, but must be balanced against the lack of data on minorities, particularly African Americans, who have the highest rates of prostate cancer.
In summary, these data from an incidence study confirm findings from other study designs that a family history of prostate cancer is a strong prostate cancer risk factor, and also support the idea that a family history of breast/ovarian cancer may also be a prostate cancer risk factor.
| Acknowledgments |
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| Footnotes |
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1 Supported by Grant R21 CA/ES69838 and contracts N01-CP-51026, N01-CP-85614, and N01-CN-67009. J. R. C. was supported in part by a National Cancer Institute Preventive Oncology Academic Award (K07 CA64220). ![]()
2 To whom requests for reprints should be addressed, at Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, 200 First Street SW, Rochester, MN 55905. Phone: (507) 538-0499; Fax: (507) 284-1516; E-mail: cerhan.james{at}mayo.edu ![]()
3 The abbreviations used are: HCFA, Health Care Financing Administration; BMI, body mass index; RR, relative risk; CI, confidence interval; SEER, Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results. ![]()
Received 7/20/98; revised 11/13/98; accepted 11/30/98.
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