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1 Department of Surgical Sciences, Karolinska University Hospital and 2 Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; and 3 Centro Español de Investigación Farmacoepidemiologica, Madrid, Spain
Requests for reprints: Mats Lindblad, Department of Surgery, P9: 03, Karolinska University Hospital, SE-171 76 Stockholm, Sweden. Phone: 46-8-517-70-000; Fax: 46-8-33-15-87. E-mail: mats.lindblad{at}karolinska.se
| Abstract |
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Methods: We tested these associations in a prospective, nested case-control study based on the General Practitioners Research Database, including over 2 million persons in the United Kingdom between 1994 and 2001. In multivariate analyses we calculated odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Data were stratified by history of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) disorders and recalculated using 2 years lag time on data (i.e., excluding all information 2 years before index date).
Results: Among 4,340,207 person-years of follow-up, we identified 909 patients with esophageal cancer and 1,023 patients with gastric cancer. We randomly selected 10,000 control subjects. Overall analysis suggested that long-term users of nonaspirin NSAIDs were at reduced risks of esophageal (OR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.57-1.18) and gastric cancer (OR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.44-0.94), whereas long-term aspirin users might be at decreased risk of esophageal cancer (OR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.53-1.08), but not of gastric cancer (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.82-1.45). All estimates of reduced risk were weakened in the 2 years lag time analysis except the association between nonaspirin NSAIDs long-term users and gastric cancer. Potentially protective effects were suggestive of being more marked among subjects with a history of UGI disorders.
Conclusions: Nonaspirin NSAIDs long-term use was associated with a reduced risk of gastric cancer, whereas no other studied associations could be firmly established. Our results suggest that UGI disorders could distort the associations, although we could not show this with statistical significance. If such bias was to be true, the previously reported inverse associations might, at least partly, be explained by lack of appropriate adjustment for such disorders.
| Introduction |
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| Materials and Methods |
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Study Cohort
In the GPRD, we identified all patients ages 40 to 84 years during the study period, January 1994 through December 2001. Patients became members of the study cohort on the date when they met the criteria of at least 2 years of enrollment with the GP and at least 1 year of computerized prescription history. Patients with any cancer recorded in the GPRD before this start date were excluded.
Follow-up
The members of the study cohort were followed up until the earliest occurrence of any of the following end points: (a) detection of an esophageal or gastric cancer, (b) detection of any other cancer, (c) age of 85 years, (d) death, or (e) end of study period (December 31, 2001).
Identification of Case Subjects
The computerized search of the study cohort identified 2,128 patients with a diagnosis code indicating an esophageal or gastric cancer during follow-up. One investigator (M.L.) reviewed all computerized patient profiles to verify and further classify all tumors. To avoid bias, all exposure information was removed before the start of this review. Patients were excluded from further analyses if (a) the tumor was benign; (b) the site of the primary cancer was unknown; (c) the tumor was a metastasis; (d) the patient had another, concurrent, cancer; (e) the cancer was first diagnosed before the start date in the study cohort; or (f) the histologic diagnosis was not adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma. For a sample of 1,280 (60%) consecutive case patients, identified by the computerized search, the GPs were asked to provide information on the site and histology of the tumor and to send available paper-based information (e.g., operation and pathology reports, letters from specialists) related to the diagnosis. We received complementary information on 993 (78%) of these patients, resulting in an additional exclusion of 2.7 % of the computer-detected cases. Because the effect of this additional exclusion review was negligible, we did not request complementary information from the GPs for the remaining computer-detected case subjects. Index date was set to be the date when the tumor was first recorded or when the manual review revealed an earlier date of diagnosis.
Selection of Control Subjects
A date within the study period was generated at random for each of the members of the entire source cohort. If this random date was included in the eligible person-time for that cohort member, we used this random date as the index date and marked that person as an eligible control subject. Thereafter, a total of 10,000 controls, free of cancer, were randomly selected and frequency matched by sex, age (within 1 year), and same calendar year from the pool of eligible controls. The number of 10,000 controls was chosen as being close to five controls per case, a ratio considered to bring close to as much information as any other ratio greater than it.
Definition of the Drug Exposure
Any drug exposure before index date was considered. We classified exposure for each drug into nonuse or ever use. Nonuse represented no recorded use and ever use was defined as any recorded use of that drug. Ever users were further grouped into current or past users. Current use was defined as when prescriptions for that drug were issued within the year before index date, whereas past use represents whenever the most recent prescription for that drug was issued at least 1 year before index date. Among current users, the duration of drug use was calculated adding the periods of "consecutive" prescriptions, defined as an interval of <6 months between two prescriptions of the same drug. Duration was grouped into three levels (<1, 1-3, or >3 years). The latter duration category was defined as long-term use. Daily dose of nonaspirin NSAIDs was categorized as low medium or high for each individual drug (see Appendix 1), whereas daily dose of aspirin was grouped into three levels (up to 75 mg, >75 but <300 mg, and
300 mg).
Analysis
In cohort analyses, we calculated the incidence rates by dividing the total number of observed cases by the corresponding total person-time followed up in each age and sex specific strata. We used Poisson regression to estimate relative risk and 95% confidence interval (95% CI; ref. 35). In nested case-control analyses (i.e., the main analyses), we used unconditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% CIs. In this study design, the OR is an unbiased estimator of the incidence rate ratio. All estimates of risk were adjusted for the following potential confounding factors: age (in 10-year categories), sex, calendar year, smoking status (categorized into nonsmokers, ex-smokers, current smokers, or unknown), alcohol use (categorized into 0-2, 3-16, 16-34, >34 units per day, or unknown), body mass index (BMI) in kg/m2 (categorized into <20, 20-25, 26-30, >30, or unknown), and a history of UGI disorders (yes or no). UGI disorders was defined as any of the following events recorded up to 6 months before index date: gastroesophageal reflux disease, peptic ulcer, dyspepsia, or prescription of acid suppressing drugs (i.e., proton pump inhibitors or H2-receptor blockers). Stratified analyses were done by sex, age (<70, or >70 years), UGI disorders (yes or no), and by use of health services during the 2 years before index date. The use of health services was defined as recorded visits to the GP, referrals, or hospitalizations. To further evaluate the influence of protopathic bias (i.e., reversed causality due to that the use of a drug might be determined by early symptoms of a, yet undetected, cancer), all main analyses were recalculated using 2 years of lag time (i.e., only including information recorded at least 2 years before index date).
Ethics
The Scientific and Ethical Advisory Group in the United Kingdom approved the study.
| Results |
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Aspirin
Users of aspirin with >3 years of duration were associated with a decreased risk of esophageal cancer (OR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.53-1.08), but no reduction in risk was found for gastric cancer (Table 3). Among persons who used daily doses of 75, 150, and
300 mg, ORs for esophageal cancer were 0.79 (95% CI, 0.47-1.33), 0.86 (95% CI, 0.46-1.61), and 0.60 (95% CI, 0.29-1.23), respectively. Among long-term users, there were no major differences between esophageal adenocarcinoma (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.41-1.36) and squamous cell carcinoma (OR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.35-2.16). No important changes of results were found in analyses using duration as the total cumulative time of drug use (data not shown). Furthermore, the results did not change importantly after exclusion of nonaspirin NSAIDs users (data not shown). In analyses with 2 years lag time, current use of aspirin was associated with a decreased risk of esophageal cancer (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.58-0.97) but not gastric cancer (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.95-1.45). Among long-term current users of aspirin, no association with esophageal cancer (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.65-1.51) or gastric cancer (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.71-1.54) was observed.
Influence of UGI Disorders
A history of UGI disorders increased the risk of both esophageal cancer (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.04-1.39) and gastric cancer (OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.48-1.92) after adjustment for all other potential confounding variables listed in the Materials and Methods section. In analyses with 2 years lag time, there were still increased risks of both esophageal cancer (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.02-1.38) and gastric cancer (OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.11-1.46). Among control subjects, UGI disorders was linked with increased use of both nonaspirin NSAIDs and aspirin (Table 4). When we excluded adjustment for UGI disorders in the model, the risk estimates only increased slightly (data not shown). When stratifying the analysis by UGI disorders, ORs for both esophageal and gastric cancer changed compared with the overall analysis (Table 5). Using data without lag time, we found that among subjects without UGI disorders, the negative association slightly approached the null among nonaspirin NSAIDs long-term users, whereas among subjects with UGI disorders, the negative association was reinforced (Table 5). This finding was more pronounced when using the 2 years lag time data and extended to encompass also the association with aspirin long-term use (Table 5). However, the differences between the two strata of UGI disorder, in their association to use of NSAIDs, never reached the level of statistical significance. Analyses of each separate UGI disorder (i.e., gastroesophageal reflux disease, peptic ulcer, dyspepsia, or prescription of acid suppressing drugs) rendered similar results as the composite variable (data not shown).
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| Discussion |
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The main advantages of our study are the large sample size and the prospectively assessed exposure data, with detailed information on dates and types of drug use and medical data, including UGI disorders. The recordings in the database are based on the GPs' routine medical care. This renders a degree of missing values and misclassification that, in some of the potential confounders, could differ between cases and controls. We found that the missing values were evenly distributed between cases and controls, however. This implies that the exposure information was equally good for cases and controls. Furthermore, because the information regarding potential confounders was recorded prospectively, before the occurrence of any cancer, any possible exposure misclassification should mainly be nondifferential and could, at the most, slightly dilute the risk estimates. A potential weakness of our study is the case ascertainment, because there was no cancer registry for identification of case patients. Previous studies of the diagnoses assessed in the GPRD have shown good validity, however (32, 33). Furthermore, our manual review of all computer-selected cases together with the review of additional information provided by the GP in a large sample of cases should have reduced tumor misclassification. Another source of error was that the GPRD does not contain adequate information regarding some potential confounding factors, including dietary habits, education, or familiar antecedents. However, it is unlikely that any of these factors could explain our results, as they will most likely be shared equally between users and nonusers of NSAIDs. We did not have access to Helicobacter pylori status, which possibly could have an influence on the use of NSAIDs. On the other hand, we had access to data regarding several other, and possibly more important variables, including UGI disorders. We were unable to capture exposure to widely available over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs, but the impact of this possible error has previously been reported to be negligible, especially when the exposure of interest is long term (36). Another limitation is that the computerized database started in the late 1980s and therefore lacks information before that period. Consequently, the lag-time analyses were inherently less precise when evaluating the role of long-term duration of drug use. Furthermore, our definitions of current use and long-term use are arbitrary and the data collection regarding the long-term usage (i.e., current use of at least 3 years) probably includes many subjects with <5 years of use, which might dilute the group of "true" long-term users. Yet, this should not interfere importantly with our results, because consistency has been high among previous studies of the association between NSAIDs and gastrointestinal cancers despite major heterogeneous exposure definitions (12). We also assessed, in a subanalysis, the role of total cumulative exposure of NSAIDs (aspirin and nonaspirin NSAIDs), without finding any important differences with the main analysis. Similarly, the GPRD lacks information regarding the presence of medical disorders (e.g., UGI disorders) occurring earlier than the beginning of the computerized database, which might introduce residual confounding.
Although data are somewhat conflicting, the majority of previous studies support an inverse association between use of aspirin or nonaspirin NSAIDs and risk of esophageal and gastric cancer (13, 14, 16-18, 20-22, 25-27). In most studies, personal interviews or self-administered questionnaires were employed, however (14-16, 19, 25, 26). Problems with such retrospective data collection are nondifferential misclassification, and more importantly, differential misclassification. Retrospective data collection is particularly prone to recall bias, because it relies heavily on the subject's ability to recall past drug exposure, especially when duration of use is the main interest. This ability of recalling might be influenced by the newly verified cancer among cases. Most of our risk estimates did not bear statistical significance, which could be due to insufficient numbers of subjects, but the point estimates in our study were in line with previous results. However, the protective effects weakened when restricting the analysis to persons without UGI disorders. Only three previous studies attempted to adjust their results for UGI disorders (14, 25, 26). In a U.S. population-based case-control study, there was no change in the protective effect of aspirin or NSAIDs on the risk of esophageal or gastric cancer in analyses restricted to subjects without UGI disorders (14). Two case-control studies of aspirin and gastric cancer in Russia (25), and in Sweden (26), adjusted for UGI disorders and found that the negative association was compelled to H. pyloripositive subjects, however.
Appropriate adjustment for UGI disorders should be of great importance when investigating these associations, because patients who experience early symptoms from a yet unrecognized UGI tumor may increase or decrease their use of NSAIDs (i.e., protopathic bias; refs. 11, 12, 23, 37). Furthermore, it might be crucial to consider interaction between NSAIDs and known risk factors for the occurrence of esophageal or gastric cancer (i.e., reflux in esophageal adenocarcinoma; ref. 38), or H. pylori infection and peptic ulcer disease in gastric cancer (39). Hence, the indication (or the contraindication) for treatment might act as a confounder. These types of biases are common sources of error in pharmacoepidemiology (40-42), a problem that has not been satisfactory addressed in the previous literature (11, 12, 23, 37). Our data indicate that a history of UGI disorders is an independent risk factor for esophageal and gastric cancer. Moreover, in agreement with previous studies (43-47), such disorders were linked with the use of analgesics among our controls, representing the source population. Hence, if UGI disorders occur before NSAID use, they may act as confounders (42). Therefore, we attempted to adjust for UGI disorders in the analyses by both logistic regression, stratification, and by changes of lag time. Because we could not firmly establish the temporal relation between NSAID use and UGI disorders, the divergent results after stratification are complex to interpret. There are at least four alternative explanations. First, the use of NSAIDs might reduce the progression from UGI disorders to esophageal and gastric cancers (i.e., UGI disorders are in the causal chain). This would imply a true protective effect of NSAIDs, stronger among subjects with UGI disorders. Second, patients with a yet unrecognized esophageal or gastric cancer might be less prone to use NSAIDs because of early symptoms (UGI disorders) from their cancer (i.e., reversed causality). Third, UGI disorders might be affected by prior NSAID use and therefore stratification may have introduced selection bias (48, 49). Fourth, certain UGI disorders (reflux and gastric ulcer) are well established independent risk factors of esophageal and gastric cancer, respectively. It is also well known that NSAIDs may cause several UGI side effects (e.g., gastric ulcer and dyspeptic symptoms), usually leading to contraindication for NSAIDs prescription. If contraindication was more likely for cases than controls, as cases were more likely to have a history of UGI disorders than controls, the reduced ORs among persons with UGI disorders, but not among those without UGI disorders, could be an artifact and occur even in the absence of causal association between NSAID use and cancer risk (i.e., confounding by contraindication).
In conclusion, our large, prospective nested case-control study provides further indication of a protective effect of nonaspirin NSAIDs on the risk of gastric cancer but still leaves an unresolved question on all other studied associations. Our results suggest that UGI disorders could distort the associations, although we could not show this with statistical significance. If such bias was true, the previously reported inverse associations might, at least partly, be explained by lack of appropriate adjustment for such disorders. Further studies that could analyze with validity the exact timing and interplay between NSAIDs, UGI disorders and these tumors are warranted before any firm conclusions can be drawn.
| Appendix 1. Nonaspirin NSAIDs daily dose limits for categorization into low-medium and high daily dose |
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| Acknowledgments |
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| Footnotes |
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The costs of publication of this article were defrayed in part by the payment of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked advertisement in accordance with 18 U.S.C. Section 1734 solely to indicate this fact.
Received 6/22/04; revised 8/29/04; accepted 9/ 7/04.
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